Consumers See No Housing Pickup Until Mid-'08

NEW YORK -- Few U.S. consumers expect any renewed strength in home prices until the middle of next year, though they cautiously concluded that the worst of the sector's slump is over, a survey released Friday showed.

Until that improvement takes place, a stalemate in the market is likely to prevail as buyers await further falls in prices, but sellers remain reluctant to sell after recent declines, according to the survey by Richard Curtin, director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

"This standoff has remained largely unchanged since the start of 2007, but it is likely to gradually recede over the next year," Curtin said in a statement on the survey, which was produced in May.

"While monthly sales are likely to vary as either buyers or sellers gain temporary advantage, a sustained upward trend is not expected until mid-2008," Curtin said.

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Though reduced home values can influence the ability of owners to cash out equity to support consumption spending, the data indicates a severe decline in such equity withdrawls is unlikely as fewer homeowners reported recent declines in the value of their homes in May, Curtin added.

However, credit conditions may well tighten after this year's crisis in the subprime mortgage sector for riskier borrowers.

Also, Curtin said that financial institutions are likely to constrain borrowing against home equity based on smaller estimated home values that reflect market changes.

"The small reductions in cash-outs will modestly slow the pace of consumption spending in 2007 and 2008," Curtin added.

He said that three times as many consumers in May expected home prices to increase instead of decrease in the next year — or 39 percent against 12 percent. Over the next five years, nine times as many expected increases rather than declines — or 66 percent compared with 7 percent.

Curtin said the most negative finding was that half of all owners expected home prices to remain unchanged during the year ahead and one in four expected price stagnation over the next five years.

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Editor's note:
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