WASHINGTON -- U.S. retail gasoline prices have hit a short-term peak and drivers could see a further decline of 5 cents to 10 cents a gallon at the pump this month, the government's top energy forecaster said Monday.
"I think in the short term they're actually going to go down a bit," Energy Information Administration (EIA) chief Guy Caruso said at the Reuters Global Energy Summit. "There's a chance we could see another 5- or 10-cent reduction in gasoline prices if everything goes all right with respect to supplies."
Helping to push down pump prices this month will be strong gasoline imports, which are expected to average 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels a day through August, and rising gasoline production as more oil refineries come back online, Caruso said.
After hitting record highs for two weeks in a row, the average national price for gasoline fell almost a penny to $3.21 a gallon, the EIA reported last week.
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Caruso said he expected pump prices to be down again when the agency releases its latest survey of service stations later Monday.
"I think you will see some lowering of gasoline prices during the month of June," he said. The EIA is the Energy Department's independent analytical arm.
Caruso warned that gasoline prices could increase again in July and August, when motor fuel use is projected to rise.
"We think that demand in July and August could put upward pressure on prices again," he said, "and we could be facing a situation where we get another peak in gasoline prices later on in the summer."
The latest government data shows U.S. refineries operating at about 91 percent capacity. However, Caruso said refinery utilization could climb to 95 percent during some weeks this summer.
"It wouldn't surprise me because the incentives are so great. The (profits) are still very strong," he said.
With strong fuel imports and more refineries back in operation, Caruso said he expected U.S. gasoline inventories to return to near-normal levels during June.
Still, Caruso cautioned that strong gasoline demand in Nigeria, Europe and Asia could cut into motor fuel shipments to the U.S. market.
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