CHICAGO -- Cattle, hog and poultry producers should be buying corn now to take advantage of the big drop in prices because there is a good chance $4 corn will return, agricultural economists said Monday.
"This may be an opportunity to lock in some corn prices to carry through to the end of the year," John Lawrence, agricultural economist at Iowa State University, said Monday. "The grain market will continue to be volatile."
Since Friday morning, corn prices have dropped about 10 percent at the Chicago Board of Trade to about $3.50 per bushel Monday in reaction to the U.S. Agriculture Department predicting U.S. farmers this spring will plant the largest corn crop since World War II.
USDA Friday estimated U.S. farmers will plant 90.454 million acres to corn, the most since 1944. That area has the potential to produce 12.5 billion bushels, topping the 2004 record of 11.8 billion bushels.
"I think you will find lots of buyers in this price range," said Chris Hurt, agricultural economist at Purdue University.
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In February, CBOT corn futures peaked at $4.37 per bushel, the highest in 10 years, amid intense demand for the grain by both producers of the biofuel ethanol and by livestock producers.
A huge corn crop this year could satisfy both industries, but Hurt, Lawrence, and other industry experts said it is too early to bet on that happening. The corn needs to be planted on time, will need good growing weather this summer, and be harvested on time this fall.
Wet fields in the Midwest already may slow spring planting, however, though Hurt said there is plenty of time to plant the crop.
"Nothing has been planted yet and we have to have a perfect harvest," said Paul Aho, an economist with Poultry Perspective, a poultry industry consulting firm.
Aho also advised users of corn to take advantage of the dip in prices.
"If I were a poultry company and I saw these prices, I would be hedging," he said. "I would expect to see $4 corn again, maybe even this month."
Iowa State's Lawrence said it will take more than Friday's crop report to prompt meat companies to adjust production schedules. The companies will likely wait to see how the crop develops before making changes.
"I don't think anyone is changing their long-term strategies," Lawrence said.
U.S. chicken companies recently cut production, partly in reaction to when corn prices moved higher late last year and early this year. Monday, Pilgrim's Pride Corp., the largest U.S. chicken producer, said it will maintain its reduced production schedule.
"We believe the production cuts implemented by Pilgrim's Pride and other chicken processors have begun to help strike a better balance between production and demand, yet market prices are still not where they need to be given either the current cost of feed ingredients or those projected by the USDA crop report last week" said O.B. Goolsby Jr., Pilgrim's Pride chief executive.
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