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N.J. Poll: Bloomberg Entry Could Hurt Giuliani
If New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg jumps into the presidential race as an independent, it might not be good news for his predecessor - Rudolph Giuliani, according to a new poll. In a theoretical matchup in New Jersey between Giuliani and Sen. Hillary Clinton, the Quinnipiac University poll showed Giuliani slightly ahead, with 47 percent to Clinton's 44 percent. But Bloomberg would take 18 percent of the Garden State vote if he entered the race, creating a 36 to 36 percent tie between Giuliani, a Republican, and Clinton, a Democrat. "If Mayor Bloomberg runs as an independent, he takes more votes from Giuliani, making the three-way race too close to call," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Story Continues Below Even with Bloomberg not in the race, the Quinnipiac poll results show a tighter race than a previous Quinnipiac poll in April, which had Giuliani leading with 49 percent, versus 40 percent for Clinton, a senator from New York. A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released in June also showed Clinton and Giuliani garnering the most support among New Jersey voters. If Giuliani were to become the GOP nominee for president, he might look to New Jersey as a place to pick up electoral votes that have gone to Democrats in recent elections. New Jersey hasn't supported a Republican for president since 1988. But the new poll has 61 percent of the state's voters holding a favorable view of Giuliani, higher than any other presidential contender. In other theoretical matchups, the Quinnipiac poll showed New Jersey voters giving Giuliani an 8-point lead, 48 percent to 40 percent, over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, and a slight edge, 47 percent to 44 percent, over former Vice President Al Gore.
Two other potential GOP presidential nominees, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former U.S. senator and "Law & Order" actor Fred Thompson, wouldn't fair as well. Clinton, Obama and Gore all lead Thompson in the poll. Clinton and Gore would both lead McCain, while Obama would have just a slight edge over McCain. Both Gore and Thompson have yet to officially enter the presidential race. Giuliani leads a New Jersey Republican primary with 46 percent, followed by McCain with 11 percent, Thompson at 9 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 7 percent. "The Republican field is all Giuliani, who captures nearly a majority any way you look at the candidate list," Richards said.
In a New Jersey Democratic primary, Clinton leads with 37 percent, with 18 percent for Gore, 15 percent for Obama and 6 percent for 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards. The poll found a large percentage of voters unhappy with President Bush, and the direction the country is going. The poll found 74 percent of New Jersey voters disapproved of how President Bush was doing his job, versus 21 percent who approved. Among New Jersey voters, 76 percent thought the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, versus 18 percent who thought it's going in the right direction. The poll surveyed 1,604 New Jersey voters from June 26 to July 2, with a sampling margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. It included 505 Republicans with a sampling margin error of 4.4 percentage points, and 575 Democrats with a sampling error margin of 4.1 percentage points.
© 2007 Associated Press.
Editor's note:
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