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Zogby: Obama Leads Republican Rivals
Democrat Hillary Clinton has taken a big leap forward in prospective general election presidential match-ups against Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, riding mainly on a powerful wave of support from women and political moderates, a new Zogby International poll shows. The telephone survey of likely voters has the former First Lady and New York senator leading all of the top four GOP contenders in prospective races, a significant improvement for her over the last Zogby poll to test such contests in mid-May. Democrat Barack Obama continues to lead those same four contenders—Giuliani, McCain, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee—as he did in Zogby’s May survey.
The poll, conducted July 12-14, 2007, included 1,012 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Clinton’s move over the past two months has been dramatic. Against Giuliani, Clinton has moved from a five-point deficit (Giuliani 48%-Clinton 43%) to a six-point lead, 47%-41%. Among moderates, Clinton expanded a six-point lead in May (48%-42%) to a massive 24-point edge, now leading Giuliani by a 55% to 31% edge. Against McCain, she went from a 49%-45% deficit among moderates to a strapping 52% to 35% lead—and this against the two moderate Republican leaders in the presidential race. Her move to shore up female support is just as dramatic. For instance, in the contest against Giuliani in May, the two were tied among women at 45%. Now, Clinton leads, 54% to 35%. Against McCain, she expanded her lead from 7% to 10%, edging the Arizona senator, 51% to 41%. Among independents, she moved from a 47%-39% deficit against McCain to a 46%-36% lead over him. Against Giuliani, Clinton moved from a one-point deficit among independents to a five-point lead.
Obama’s edge over his prospective Republican rivals remained largely the same as in the May survey. The survey shows, in fact, that McCain’s support among moderates and independents across the board has collapsed—this after his failure on the recent immigration reform bill and widespread reports of a campaign prone to mismanagement and fund-raising shortfalls. Not only does McCain now trail Obama and Clinton in the head-to-head match-ups, he has fallen into a 43%-43% tie with Democrat John Edwards, when two months ago he enjoyed a five-point lead against the former North Carolina senator.
Edwards, like McCain, has fallen badly behind his competitors in national preference polling. But while Edwards still leads the Dem pack in Iowa, McCain has also faltered badly there, trailing by double-digits behind Romney, who also leads in New Hampshire polling. Bloomberg Makes Small Impact When New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has expressed interest in spending up to $1 billion of his own money on an independent bid for the White House next fall, is tossed into the presidential mix, he pulls slightly more support from Republicans than he does from Democrats in this early polling. The socially liberal, fiscally conservative mayor, who won two terms as a liberal Republican, has recently cast off the GOP moniker in favor of an independent label. Polling has shown he is not now a well-known political quantity across America, but an intense advertising campaign could change that quickly. In the three-way contests, Bloomberg wins between 6% and 11% support, but the outcome of no race changes because of his presence in the contest. For a detailed methodological statement, please visit:http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1200 Editor's note:
Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
2008 Presidential Race
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