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Zogby: Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson Lead 2008 Race
The candidate who seems to have been running forever and the one who has yet to enter the race are leading their respective nomination contests in a national preference poll by Zogby International.
The latest Zogby survey shows New York Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 37 percent to 25 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is a distant third at 12 percent, while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson leads the also-rans with 4 percent. Clinton’s edge over Obama has shrunk slightly since late May - she has lost two points and Obama has gained 1 percent since that last Zogby poll of the race. Eighteen percent of Democrats remain undecided, the same as in late May.
The survey shows Clinton has picked up steam, especially among younger Democratic voters. She wins 59 percent support among those aged 18-29, up 10 percent since late May. Meanwhile, Edwards has lost significant ground in the same demographic. In fact, lower tier candidate Dennis Kucinich, at 6 percent among those under age 30, has more support than Edwards in that group. Clinton has also maintained her base of support among moderates, while expanding her support among progressives to 36 percent, up from 31 percent two months ago. Her backing among progressives appears to come out of Obama’s liberal base, as he has slipped from 35 percent to 27 percent in that group.
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On the Republican side, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, as yet a non-candidate, has climbed to the top of the GOP leaderboard, winning 22 percent support, compared to 21 percent for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains in third place with 11 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain continues his dramatic slide, from second place in late May to fourth place now, supported by 9 percent of likely Republican voters nationwide.
Thompson’s strongest appeal comes from those who consider themselves to be "very conservative,” as 35 percent in that group said they favored the former Tennessee Senator-turned-actor. Giuliani finished a distant third in that group, followed by Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. McCain finishes fifth among very conservative voters. Among mainline conservatives - the largest subgroup of GOP voters - Giuliani wins 21 percent, compared to 20 percent for Thompson, 13 percent for Romney, and 12 percent for McCain.
One in four Republican voters are undecided, about the same as late May.
The latest Zogby International telephone survey was conducted July 12-14, 2007, and included 396 likely voting Democrats. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. The Republican segment included 364 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points.
Editor's note:
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