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Sabato: Hillary Has General Election Problems
In his latest Crystal Ball newsletter, Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and a widely respected expert on the American political scene, sees Hillary Clinton as a probable winner in the primaries and a probable loser in the general election. Noting that Hillary could easily survive a loss in the Iowa caucuses, Sabato warns that the road ahead for her is still full of ruts and potholes. That being said, her fate lies in whether the Democrats – and the country - consider the big picture prior to voting in January and then November. "It's anybody's guess,” he writes "whether they will.” Thanks to the President’s staggeringly low popularity rating and other problems besetting the GOP, the outlook for a Democratic victory in 2008 looks bright. But simmering below the surface are indications that the rosy picture may be misleading.
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"The Crystal Ball is the first to admit that Clinton is a substantial, maybe heavy early favorite for the nomination,” Sabato observed. "Hillary has become the ‘woman candidate’ in a party strongly influenced by women in its voting base (if not in public office). Her first-tier opponents are also hobbled in various ways.” Yet, he warns Hillary "has her own unique set of difficulties, and neither her party nor the general electorate has focused on them in a comprehensive way.” Among them Sabato writes:
Noting that "Democrats (and some Independents) have fallen back in love with Bill Clinton, and this has caused a case of mass amnesia about his (and her) many scandals from the 1990s,” Sabato says the "muted reactions to the two new books on Hillary Clinton by Carl Bernstein, Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. Suggests that voters have already absorbed the embarrassing fundamentals and factored the scandals into their fixed perceptions of the Clintons.” He asks, "Do leopards change their spots? Suppose the news media choose to break more recent (post-January 20, 2001) information about the former President? How much additional tolerance for a continuation of the tired Clinton soap opera is there in the American public? "If this happens, Democrats will suffer - whether the revelations come before the nomination is decided or after the nominee (if Mrs. Clinton) is chosen. As First Gentleman, Bill Clinton will also be reasonably subject to the highest level of scrutiny for four or eight more years. "Would the public ignore additional indiscretions as more of the same, or recoil anew and punish Democrats at the polls in future elections? "One can argue this either way, though we think the latter outcome is much more likely.”
Editor's note:
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