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Zogby: It's McCain, Giuliani ... and Fred Thompson in S.C.
Arizona Sen. John McCain has finally found a place where he holds a lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination – South Carolina. A new Barrington Broadcasting/Zogby International telephone poll shows him nursing a slight lead over former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, while Fred Thompson has edged Mitt Romney out of the top three among South Carolinians likely to vote in the Republican primary early next year. McCain leads among Republicans with 22% support, while Giuliani trails closely behind at 19%. And while he has not declared his candidacy, actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is in third-place in the first Southern state to vote for President next year with 11% support, just ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who receives 10% support. South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford – who has made no indication he plans to run but whose name has popped up as both a potential presidential candidate and vice-presidential running mate – ranked fifth in support in his home state with 8%.
Story Continues Below Pollster John Zogby: "It is very intriguing to see that John McCain is doing best in the northern and western parts of South Carolina – the very areas where he got crushed in 2000. It is also clear that there is a big pool of undecideds among conservatives, particularly in the western part of the state.
Should Fred Thompson, a conservative from not–so–distant Tennessee who now registers in third place, enter the race for the GOP nomination, those undecided conservatives could give him a lot of room to grow." Overall, a majority of likely primary voters (69%) said they would be most likely to vote for a candidate who is generally more conservative, while one in four (26%) would prefer a more moderate candidate. Giuliani (20%), McCain (19%), Romney (11%) and Thompson (11%) lead among self-described conservatives, although a sizable percentage (27%) said they are unsure for whom they would vote. Among self-described very conservatives, Thompson (19%), McCain (18%) and Romney (15%) lead. Moderates prefer McCain at 32% support, with Giuliani at 27% and Thompson trailing in third place at 8% support. The telephone survey of 512 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted April 16-17, 2007, and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Among evangelical Christians, McCain (22%) and Giuliani (16%) are out front, as Fred Thompson (10%) barely edges Romney and Sanford, who are tied at 9% support. One in four men (24%) support McCain, while 18% would vote for Giuliani, 13% for Thompson and 10% for Romney. Giuliani (20%) and McCain (19%) are the leading candidates among women, with Romney and Thompson tied for third at 10%. Thompson enjoys the strongest intensity of support at 95%, with Giuliani at 91%, McCain at 87% and Romney trailing at 78%. Of the top four candidates, 84% of Romney supporters said it is likely they could change their minds about voting for him before the primary, compared to 81% who said the same about McCain and 74% who feel that way about Giuliani and Thompson. While 81% said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who stands by what he or she believes in – regardless if they can win the general election – 13% said they would instead favor a candidate who can win the White House.
Editor's note:
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