Former New York Mayor Rudy
Giuliani has widened his lead over United States Senator John McCain, and
is now the clear front runner in the race for the Republican presidential
nomination for the 2008 election. In February, The Harris Poll(R) showed
that support for Giuliani and McCain was fairly close, but this is no
longer true. Evidence of Giuliani's gain includes:
Over one-third (35%) of adults would now consider voting for him,
compared to 29 percent who said so in February. The percentage of
those who would consider voting for McCain is unchanged at 26 percent.
The proportion of Republicans who would consider voting for Giuliani has
increased from 58 percent in February to 64 percent. During this time,
the proportion of those who would consider voting for McCain has slipped
from 46 percent to 42 percent.
Independents who would consider voting for Giuliani have increased from
27 percent to 34 percent, while the percentage of those who would
consider voting for McCain is virtually unchanged at 28 percent.
When it comes to their first choice for president, 11 percent of all
adults (and 28% of Republicans) prefer Giuliani, compared to five
percent of adults (and only 11% of Republicans) who choose McCain.
Giuliani has gained seven points among Republicans since February, while
McCain has lost four points.
This Harris Poll surveyed 2,776 U.S. adults online and was conducted by
Harris Interactive(R) between March 1 and 12, 2007. Respondents were able
to review the list of all 26 potential candidates to say whom they would
consider and prefer. Like all polls conducted well before an election, it
should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the
presidential "horse race," at a very early stage of the race. A previous
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column assessed the standing of the leading Democrats(1).
The Poll asks the public questions about current and potential
presidential candidates that are slightly different from those asked in
most other polls. First, people are asked who on a long list of 26
political leaders they would "consider voting for." Then they are asked
who, of all the listed leaders, "they would most likely vote for." Unlike
some other polls, all adults regardless of their party affiliation are
asked about all candidates.
Other Republican Candidates
This Harris Poll also asked about several other Republican leaders,
some of whom may run for the Republican nomination. While it seems highly
unlikely that he will run, former Secretary of State Colin Powell still
enjoys a lot of public support.
Among those who seem more likely to run, the only candidate with a
significant following is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; with 29
percent of Republicans saying they would consider voting for him and eight
percent picking him as their first choice. Former Massachusetts Governor
Mitt Romney is also on the radar screen, but barely. While 23 percent of
Republicans would consider voting for him, only three percent prefer him
over the other candidates.
Overall Preference for Democratic and Republican Candidate
The Democrats continue to enjoy a substantial advantage over
Republicans, with Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama being
"considered" by more people than ex-Mayor Giuliani or Senator McCain.
Overall, 69 percent of adults would consider one or more of the Democratic
contenders and 59 percent would consider one of the Republicans. And when
it comes to their first choice, 43 percent of adults prefer a Democrat,
while only 30 percent prefer a Republican.