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Monday, Jan. 22, 2007 3:34 p.m. EST

Experts: Ahmadinejad’s Days May Be Numbered

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is facing increased opposition within his nation’s hierarchy and could be toppled in the near future, according to two experts on Iran.

In an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times, Dariush Zahedi, who teaches in the departments of political economy and peace and conflict studies at the University of California-Berkeley, and Omid Memarian, an award-winning Iranian journalist, write: "The Bush administration's decision to step up pressure against Iran by going after Iranian agents inside Iraq, coupled with the Islamic Republic's increasing economic and diplomatic isolation, have pushed conservatives inside Iran to further distance themselves from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."

According to the authors, 50 members of the Iranian parliament have signed a letter calling on Ahmadinejad to appear before the parliament to explain his actions, and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly given parliament the right to criticize Ahmadinejad’s performance.

"Coupled with the country's deteriorating economy, these developments could push Ahmadinejad's opponents to replace him with a less doctrinaire politician,” according to the two experts.

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  They point to several factors that are putting pressure on the Iranian president, including:

  • Ahmadinejad was humiliated by the results of municipal elections in December – about 90 percent of his allies lost.

  • Pragmatists among Iran’s leaders feel that Ahmadinejad’s sponsorship of a Holocaust denial conference in Tehran and his repeated threats to wipe out Israel have convinced China and Russia to vote for United Nations sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program.

  • Ahmadinejad’s policy of deficit spending to boost the economy has stoked inflation, and the prices of some basic foodstuffs have soared 25 percent.

  • The U.S.-led campaign to dry up financing for Iran’s oil and gas and other industrial projects will further increase the country’s economic troubles.

    "From the conservatives' point of view, blaming a single individual who can easily be restrained or even removed for all that ails Iran could avert a legitimacy crisis for the system,” Zahedi and Memarian write.

    "Parliament can impeach Ahmadinejad, or the supreme leader can remove him. Short of that, a stern lecture from Khamenei could force Ahmadinejad to temper his words and play a less visible role.”

    They add, however, that a U.S. military strike against Iran’s nuclear installations "would surely give new life to Ahmadinejad's militant faction, enabling him to rally the masses behind the flag, compel his conservative critics to close ranks behind him and crush the remnants of Iran's liberal civil society and democratic movement.”

    © NewsMax 2007. All rights reserved.

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