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Tuesday, July 25, 2006 9:37 a.m. EDT

Zogby: Democrats Lead in Ohio, Pa., N.J. Races

The latest round of Internet-based surveying by pollster John Zogby finds Democratic Senate challengers in strong field position against two weakened Republican incumbents, while several governors in both parties continue to fight tough re-elections.

The online surveys were conducted July 11 through 19, 2006, with polling in 25 key states.

Ohio Senator Mike DeWine and Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, both Republicans, remain the two most vulnerable incumbents heading into this fall's elections.

DeWine trails Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown 45 percent to 37 percent — a big lead for the Akron Democrat, although it suggests DeWine has regained some lost ground from Zogby's June poll, where he trailed by 13 points.

DeWine's gains are a possible signal that Ohio's conservative Republican base that had seemingly abandoned him over judicial filibusters may now be "coming home."

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For Pennsylvania’s Santorum, one of the Senate’s most vocal conservatives, the stakes couldn’t be higher. At the end of his second term, after being swept to power in the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress, Santorum has trailed Democratic Attorney General Bob Casey Jr. by a similar margin since Zogby International began polling the race last fall. The latest Zogby poll shows Santorum trailing by nine points, with 40 percent to Casey's 49 percent.

Republican prospects for capturing a Democratic seat in New Jersey also seem to have dimmed, with incumbent Senate appointee Bob Menendez suddenly opening a lead over GOP challenger Tom Kean, Jr., state senator and son of a popular former governor.

Despite the rough news for Republicans, however, the Democratic advantages in the Senate end there, suggesting this fall will bring modest Democratic pick-ups, but not enough to take control of the Senate.

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