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Hillary Clinton's Senate Lead Slipping?
Don't look now, but Hillary Clinton's "insurmountable" Senate reelection race lead over her Republican challenger in New York has started to slip. While it's too early to tell whether Mrs. Clinton's poll numbers are headed for a major tumble against former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, a Siena College survey released this week shows Spencer whittling down a previous 32 percent gap by five points. Clinton is now ahead of Spencer by 58 to 31 percent, a margin that - while still daunting - is not quite as robust as her November showing against the Vietnam combat veteran. In that Siena survey Clinton led Spencer 59 to 27 percent.
Story Continues Below A Marist College survey released this week also shows Spencer picking up support against Clinton, though she still leads in that poll by 29 points. Spencer's poll position may actually be slightly better than the Siena and Marist surveys indicate, since both polled registered voters, which tend to trend more liberal than likely voters. Another factor that's hurting Spencer right now - but will no doubt diminish as the race proceeds - is name recognition. With ten months to go before the actual vote, 84 percent of those surveyed by Quinnipiac University recently say they haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. To be sure, Mrs. Clinton's 27-point lead still qualifies her as an odds on favorite for reelection. Then again, the last New York Democrat who had been considered unbeatable had a 24 point lead in a Quinnipiac survey six months before Election Day. Despite the daunting margin, little known upstate "farmer" George Pataki went on to defeat Mario Cuomo in November.
Editor's note:
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