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Zogby: Lieberman Surges, Ford in Trouble
As Democrats and Republicans battle for control of the U.S. Senate heading into the last three weeks before Election Day, many races around the nation are too close to call, a new package of Zogby Interactive polling shows.
Missouri In one of the most closely–watched races, Missouri Republican Sen. Jim Talent has regained some field position against Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill. But the poll finds McCaskill and Talent within the margin of error, this after the race had narrowed considerably in late September. The incumbent, often considered among the most vulnerable Republicans and a prime target in Democratic efforts to capture the upper house of Congress, is also at the critical 50 percent mark. The latest poll shows Talent with 50 percent, McCaskill with 47 percent.
Virginia The latest round of polling factors in "leaners" in each contest—those likely voters who have yet to commit to a candidate but are "leaning” toward one. Utica-based polling firm Zogby International has been polling contests interactively in 26 states for more than a year.
George Allen of Virginia, a Republican once thought to be both a good bet for re-election and a possible presidential contender, continues to struggle, still leading his opponent 50 percent to 47 percent. The Allen campaign has suffered from a series of missteps late in the summer, but he holds a three-point margin over Democrat Jim Webb, the former Reagan-era Navy Secretary who is challenging for his job. However, momentum is on the side of the challenger in this round, with Allen losing ground from the previous round of polling.
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Pennsylvania Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum, long a favorite of social conservatives, continues to languish behind his challenger, pro-life Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the son of a popular former governor.
Santorum, with 44 percent, has lost ground in the latest round of polling after narrowing the contest to six points in previous rounds of polling, trailing Casey who leads with 52 percent. Ohio The outlook is a little better for Ohio’s Mike DeWine, a moderate, who is up to 45 percent, just 4 points behind his challenger's 49 percent.
The senator, who has had to deal with both a revolt by conservatives and a state party organization weakened by scandal, continues to trail liberal Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown in the Buckeye State. An early September surge by the embattled Ohio senator has not been sustained, leaving him behind a challenger who is polling at nearly 50 percent.
If Republican hopes seem dim in Pennsylvania, they are brighter across the Delaware River in New Jersey, where GOP State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. holds a narrow two-point lead over incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, who was appointed to fill out the Senate term of Gov. Jon Corzine.
Following a series of moves that have undercut the Democratic Party’s popularity in the Garden State, Menendez is the nation’s most vulnerable Democratic incumbent and now trails, 45 percent to Kean's 47 percent.
Tennessee In Tennessee, where Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. has waged an effective campaign in the battle to win the seat now held by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who is retiring, the contest remains close. Republican Bob Corker is up by seven points in the latest Zogby Interactive poll.
Lieberman Anti-war liberal Ned Lamont’s revolt against moderate Democrat-turned-independent Joe Lieberman has lost significant momentum over the past three weeks. While a late September Zogby Interactive poll had the Democratic nominee surging, the latest poll puts Lieberman ahead by six points, 49 to 43. But the race is still within the margin of error, there are still weeks to go, and anything can happen.
Editor's note:
Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics: Inside Cover Stories
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