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Poll: Negron Could Win Foley Seat
Joe Negron, the Florida legislator tapped to run for the U.S. House seat vacated by disgraced former Congressman Mark Foley, could win his race against Democrat Tim Mahoney despite polls that show him lagging, a new poll suggests. It also revealed that the Foley scandal is not much of a factor in the election. There is, however, a big "if" that could determine the outcome - how will those now undecided finally vote? According to South Florida's Sun-Sentinel, the poll conducted by Maryland's Research 2000, which conducted the telephone survey of 600 likely voters in District 16 Wednesday through Friday, showed if the election were held today, Mahoney would get 48 percent of the vote while Negron would get 41 Percent. Eleven percent of those polled, however said they had not yet made up their minds about who they would favor on Nov. 7. If just over 70 percent of undecideds fall into the Negron column, he'd pull ahead of Mahoney and Negron would win a hair-breadth victory. Given the district's Republican majority, that is well within the realm of possibility. Independent voters, reportedly angry over how Republican leaders handled the Foley scandal, could prove pivotal in the District 16 race, the poll showed. According to the Sun-Sentinel, independent voters make up 85,325, or 18 percent, of the district's 477,372 registered voters.
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Said pollster Del Ali: "Those are voters Foley did very, very well with in his previous campaigns," he told the Sun-Sentinel, adding that "These voters are clearly the most disgusted." Poll respondent Barbara Smith, an independent from Port St. Lucie, told the newspaper that she hasn't decided how she'll vote, saying she doesn't feel drawn to either candidate. "I try to pick people that I think have decency and are somewhat thinking the way I do, but quite frankly, I'm disgusted," she said. "I don't trust anyone in the government." Significantly, fully 71 percent of the respondents, including two-thirds of Democrats, said Foley's resignation would have "no effect" on whether they'll vote for Mahoney. An even bigger majority - 72 percent - said the Foley scandal wouldn't influence their voting patterns in other races. One possible drawback for Negron is the fact that Foley's name and not Negron's remains on the ballot. In an interview with Newsmax Negron said his campaign was addressing the problem. "I think that one of the benefits of all the publicity is that people now understand that his name is merely a place-holder on the ballot. The voters are always smarter than the so-called experts think they are. We're engaged in a massive education effort in the eight counties that make up the 16th Congressional District. People have been very receptive - they tell me they understand - it's not that complicated."
"The gap is narrowing," Allen Miller, a St. Lucie County Republican operative and chairman of the GOP's District 16 congressional caucus, told the Sun-Sentinel. "Even though that's a 7-point spread, we've still got three weeks, and we're going to keep plugging." Josh Kraushaar, who oversees House races for the election-tracking Web site Hotline, said that Republicans are counting on party loyalists such as Wellington resident Barbara Jones "holding their nose and voting for Foley," "We're staunch Republicans," said Jones, 72, who participated in the poll. "We're sorry about what happened with Mark Foley, but we're certainly not going to become a Democrat." Conservatives who make up the GOP base in the district lack enthusiasm about the election and could sit on their hands on Election Day, according ton the pollsters. While 58 percent of Democrats said they were "very enthusiastic" or "enthusiastic" about the election, a mere 28 percent of Republicans said the same. Palm Beach County Democratic Party Chairman Wahid Mahmood told the Sun Sentinel he expects a down-to-the-wire finish. "We know it's not going to be a cakewalk for Tim Mahoney," he said, citing Negron's name recognition in Martin and St. Lucie counties from his tenure in Tallahassee. "Florida 16 is a great example - that ought to be fairly automatically Republican," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political science professor, pointing to the district's Republican registration advantage. "And it would be in a normal year. This is not a normal year. This is a Democratic wave year. The only thing we don't know yet is how high the wave will be."
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