One of the leading contenders to succeed Pope John Paul II is a Nigerian cardinal who oddsmakers say has an 11 to 4 chance of being elected by the College of Cardinals.
"Africa is the fastest-growing Catholic Church in the world," Dr. Timothy Thibodeau, history professor at Nazareth College in Rochester, N.Y., tells the New York Post – a fact that puts Francis Cardinal Arinze in contention.
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Arguing in favor of Arinze's election are the problems confronting the church in the 21st century. Much of the world's poverty, for instance, is centered in Africa, along with a burgeoning AIDs epidemic - two crises at the top of the church's agenda.
The global rise of Islam presents another challenge that Cardinal Arinze may be uniquely suited to handle, since, according to Thibodeau, "he has a lot of experience working with Muslims."
"When you look at the last papal election in 1978, what was the world facing?" the Catholic historian posited. "The Cold War."
"Choosing a Slav, a Pole who had made a career defending the church against Nazism and communism, was a statement about what this pope would bring to the task of the moment."
Arinze's election could make a similar statement now, he added.
Other Vatican watchers, however, are not so sure that Arinze is on the short list to succeed John Paul II.
"Sooner or later we will see it," Archbishop Theodore Adrien Sarr of Dakar, Senegal, told the Post. "But this time around, I don't think the time has come."
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