Early returns indicate that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger may have scored a victory on two of the four ballot initiatives for which he campaigned heavily this fall - including what could be a surprising upset win against California's teachers' unions.
But Schwarzenegger appears likely to lose on the most politically important of the four initiatives - a bid to change California's redistricting rules.
"The teacher tenure issue was crucial for the reform of education in California," top political strategist Dick Morris told NewsMax. "It will mark a huge victory for him if he pulls it off."
With 20 percent of California's precincts reporting, Proposition 74 - which would increase the probation period for teachers and relax rules for dismissing them - was winning by a razor-thin six-tenths of one percent.
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If the Proposition 74 margin holds, said Morris, "it will be very significant for Schwarzenegger's re-election, because it would really deliver, in a big way, on his promise to reform education."
Another Schwarzenegger-backed measure, Proposition 75 - a rule requiring employee consent for public union dues used for political purposes - was winning by a healthy 8 point margin in early returns.
But Morris said that while the restriction on union contributions was "significant," it was "more symbolic than anything else."
The crown jewel of Schwarzenegger's reform package - a bid to change the state's redistricting rules - is likely to fail, however, trailing by nearly 10 points in early returns.
If the reapportionment measure is defeated, Morris told NewsMax, "that's a big setback."
"It was the most important of the four measures to Schwarzenegger, because it would have given him the potential, if he had won it, of having a legislature that fairly represents the state."
"That would have been the ultimate victory if Arnold had won it, because it would have given him the ability to govern in the future."
The fourth measure backed by the governor was Proposition 76, which would restrict growth in state spending and transfer budget-cutting power from the state Legislature to the governor.
Early returns showed that measure losing by a 15 point margin.