Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s has set off a quiet debate in Washington with his recent announcement that he is starting a nuclear energy program with the help of Brazil and Argentina. But is he really a threat to the United States?
Chavez, a self-described socialist revolutionary infamous for his chumminess with Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, first mentioned his nuclear ambitions in May after a meeting with Iranian officials.
"We want to initiate nuclear research and ask for help from countries like Iran,” Chavez said.
Brazilian Vice President Jose Alencar quickly distanced his country from Chavez. "There is no agreement with Iran or Venezuela,” Alencar told the Washington Times that same month.
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Chavez in August made a formal offer to purchase a nuclear reactor from Argentina. It is unknown whether Argentina will agree to a sale, but scientists claim there is no threat that the reactors in question will be used for military purposes.
"The technology is quite advanced,” said Argentine scientist Elias Palacios, co-secretary to the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials. "Because of the system of safeguards and inspections,” Palacios told the New York Times, "there is no way to divert it” into weapons programs.
Argentina has previously sold small nuclear reactors to Australia, Egypt, Peru, and Algeria.
Brazil has softened its vehement denial of a nuclear relationship with Venezuela. In an October meeting in Spain, Marco Garcia, the national security advisor to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was sympathetic to the idea.
After Chavez said he might pursue as many as a dozen reactors, Garcia noted, "Any country that wants to share with Brazil its peaceful-use programs will be welcomed.”
The Brazilian Foreign Ministry backpedaled quickly after an uproar from the United States. "There is no accord yet, only an idea,” said Brazil’s foreign minister, Celso Amorim.
The Bush administration is treading lightly on the issue.
"We are watchful,” an anonymous American diplomat told the New York Times, "but not worried. Chavez says a lot about a lot of things. Sometimes he ends up doing them, and sometimes he doesn’t.”
Chavez and other Venezuelan officials have said recently that his nuclear ambitions should not be a concern to the United States.
”It is absolutely ridiculous,” said Bernardo Alvarez, Venezuela’s ambassador to Washington in early November, "the idea that Venezuela would want to be a nuclear power and become a nuclear threat. Latin America is completely respectful of non-proliferation treaties, but of course that does not mean that nuclear energy cannot be pursued, just as it is in Europe and elsewhere. Venezuela says it has a right to explore these possibilities.”
Questions persist in part because Venezuela is the world’s fifth-largest exporter of oil. Nearly 75 percent of its domestic energy needs are supplied by state-owned hydroelectric power plants. In short, it is a country with already abundant energy resources.
Lawrence Scheinman, former assistant secretary of state for non-proliferation and disarmament in the Clinton administration, told the New York Times that the United States should remain alert to the situation.
No matter what Mr. Chavez says, Scheinman told the Times, if Venezuela acquired the technology to produce nuclear energy, he would have the material necessary to build a nuclear bomb.
"One has to contemplate that possibility,” he warned. "We do have a problem here of a country that’s very antagonistic toward the United States and linking itself with Cuba. There is reason to be vigilant.”