Bloomberg News columnist Margaret Carlson is warning Democrats that Bush Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers will give conservatives the fifth vote they need to overturn Roe v Wade.
"This time [President Bush is] tricking Harry Reid," said Carlson, referring to Reid's words of praise for Miers before key details about her past emerged.
Notes Carlson:
• "Miers's former campaign manager, Lorlee Bartos, said Miers told her when running for city council in 1989 that she had been 'pro-choice in her youth.' Then, according to Bartos, Miers said she underwent 'a born-again, profound experience' that caused her to change her mind and oppose abortion."
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• "That conversion fits with her $150 contribution to Texans United for Life in 1989 and her successful effort to get the American Bar Association to move from support for abortion rights to neutral in 1991."
• "After the ABA switched back to a pro-abortion-rights position, Miers in 1993 failed in a bid to have the endorsement put to a vote of the full membership."
• "Dr. James Dobson, chairman of Focus on the Family, and Jay Sekulow, chief counsel to the American Center for Law & Justice, see in Miers: a fifth vote for overturning Roe v. Wade."
• "Bush even got Dobson's approval beforehand."
If Carlson is right, why didn't Bush tap an openly avowed pro-life nominee like Janice Rogers Brown rather than another stealth candidate?
Some say the White House feared Senate defections by pro-choice Republicans would neutralized the GOP's 55-member majority.
Pro-choice Republican Olympia Snowe, for instance, said she voted to confirm John Roberts only after concluding that he "is not predisposed to overturning the settled precedent represented by Roe."
Speaking of Roe v Wade, pro-choice Republican Susan Collins told Roll Call, "Obviously the Supreme Court has the ability to overturn its precedents, but I'm looking for a justice who will respect precedents."
She said she voted for Roberts only after he personally reassured her "that he gives great weight to precedence, and that overturning precedence is - these are his words - 'a jolt to the judicial system.'"
Another pro-choice Republican is Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who - after he backed Roberts - was warned that abortion rights supporters would work to oust him if he makes a similar "mistake" with Bush's next nominee.
Then there's pro-choice GOP'er Arlen Specter, who pressed Roberts during confirmations hearing to say that he considered Roe a "super-duper" precedent.
Add to the mix the likelihood that Democrats would filibuster any open pro-lifer - triggering the intervention of the "Gang of 14," home to Republicans like John McCain and John Warner who value Senate "comity" above all else.
It's impossible to predict what might happen then. But add two more defections to Snowe, Collins, Chafee and Specter - and the GOP loses its best shot yet at gaining a pro-life majority on the court.