That's because most serious political polls taken directly after the Democratic National Convention showed no appreciable gain for the Kerry-Edwards ticket, despite good reviews from much of the mainstream media, coupled with lots of prime-time television coverage.

Seems Americans just weren't buying what Kerry and Edwards had to sell.

Then along came the Republican National Convention and, as expected, delegates nominated President Bush and Vice President Cheney to head up the party once again this election year.

The difference between the conventions? According to those same serious political polls, Bush-Cheney got a very respectable bounce from potential voters, leading to, in some cases, double-digit leads over the two Johns.

And yet it's not all over for Kerry-Edwards. That's because the real campaign question is, will the Bush-Cheney lead hold?

Most political gurus predicted the Bush-Cheney team would score as poorly as the Kerry-Edwards team in terms of whether each team's respective party convention would help in the polls. They were wrong.

But now another analyst says not only will the Bush-Cheney bounce fade, by the time the president and his challenger launch a series of debates, the race will once again become a statistical horse race.

Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, says in his "Crystal Ball" publication, "The Bush bounce notwithstanding, we'll bet that by debate time, the Bush-Kerry horserace is again a near-statistical tie."

Sabato has history on his side. Most candidates receive upward bounces in polling figures right after their respective national conventions. Yet this year, even that constant was, well, inconsistent.

Sabato says what is unique about the post-convention figures is not so much that Bush got a bounce in the polls, but that Kerry didn't.

Sabato says Kerry isn't "likeable" to swing voters, and he says the Democrats focused too much on his Vietnam experience during their convention, rather than other issues and Kerry's Senate record.

Still, come debate time, some of Bush's bounce will have dissipated. Sabato predicts that victory in November for the GOP will depend upon how much shine is lost from the chrome of the Bush-Cheney machine between now and then.

"The real question is not whether the Bush bounce will fade, but whether it all will disappear - or whether Bush will retain a crucial few points that could easily be the difference between victory and defeat," he says.

Editor's note: