"He has so emphasized Kerry's flip-flopping, so-called weakness, vacillation, all that stuff, that Kerry has to take strong positions in the debate."

That will force Kerry to make his position clear once and for all on Iraq, the top strategist said – which inevitably will cost him votes.

Morris explained:

"A third of his voters are certified hawks, who say that we're winning the war on terror. ... [But] half of his voters are doves. When he starts adopting an anti-Iraq line, anti-war line, he's going to alienate a third of his own voters."

If Kerry comes out strong for the war, however, he can say goodbye to the anti-war types, who think he'll cut and run.

"Kerry has a strategic problem," said Morris. "And it doesn't matter how good a debater you are and how attractive you are. Every time he opens his mouth on a foreign policy debate, he's got to take a position that alienates a portion of his voters."

Editor's note: