A winning performance by Bush could solidify his lead not only in Florida but also in the bulk of the battleground states, where the latest surveys give him the upper hand.

Alternatively, a strong showing by Kerry could turn the campaign back into a horse race.

"The debates are horribly important," said Garry South, a Democratic strategist not affiliated with the Kerry campaign. "They could actually be decisive if they turn a certain way."

Lurking, however, is the great unknown – the shape of Iraq in 37 days and how that will affect voter attitudes on Nov. 2.

"If they believe invading Iraq has made us safer as the vanguard in the war on terrorism, people will probably vote for Bush," said Terry Madonna, director of Pennsylvania's nonpartisan Keystone Poll.

In addition to Florida, there are just a handful of states that Democrats and Republicans still rate as true tossups – totaling 79 electoral votes are Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, West Virginia and New Hampshire.

As the Los Angeles Times pointed out Sunday, "if [Kerry] can win Pennsylvania and hold virtually every other state Gore carried, he can claim the White House by winning Florida and its 27 electoral votes."

But Florida is one of the few states that prospered during the recent recession. Add to that Bush's brother Jeb remains the popular governor there.

But the Democrats believe two factors will weigh heavily in their favor. First, the state has seen a large immigration of largely Democratic voters, most in the southern and central portions of the state.

Secondly, the Democrats have been quietly investing their resources into voter registration and their "get out the vote" effort planned for Election Day.

The wild card is the effect of the hurricanes. So far, President Bush's response to the state's crisis has been widely praised. But three hurricanes in a row have belted areas of the state largely populated by Republicans.

A former White House strategist tells NewsMax that the hurricanes will be a net negative for Bush because key Republican areas recovering from the natural disasters will not be able to mobilize to the same degree that the Democrats are.

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