"By our best estimate, Bush currently leads at the top of the ballot by about 5 percent nationally. Note that this is not the overwhelming lead of 14 percent suggested last week by the CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, but neither is the contest the tie projected by Pew, Harris, and other surveys," he writes in the latest issue of his popular Crystal Ball e-mail newsletter.

The president's lead "will ebb and flow, depending on the circumstances in Iraq, the possible actions of depraved terrorists, the October jobs numbers, the debates, and the gaffes, parries, and thrusts voters observe on the campaign trail."

He expects few changes in the Republican dominance among the states' governors. But what of Congress?

"Six weeks out, the Republicans are doing very well in the U.S. House, with their majority nearly guaranteed even if Kerry wins a narrow victory. The GOP controls 228 seats at present, with 218 needed for control, and we expect the Republicans to break the 230-mark, ending up in the 232-236 range."

The GOP's control of the Senate is not as certain, Sabato opines. Like everyone else he expects Barack Obama to beat Alan Keyes in Illinois, and says the Democrats could also replace Republicans in Alaska, Colorado and possibly even in Oklahoma.

"Out of the six vulnerable Democratic seats, we tentatively project at least three and possibly as many as five turning over to the Republicans."

Best bet for the GOP, naturally, is Johnny Isakson to take over for pro-Bush Democrat Zell Miller in Georgia, and Jim DeMint has the edge next door in South Carolina. Other possibilities: Mel Martinez in Florida and David Vitter in Louisiana.

But he thinks Democrats might keep two of their seats: obstructionist incumbent Tom Daschle in South Dakota and former Clintonista Erksine Bowles as freshman John Edwards' replacement in North Carolina after losing previously to Elizabeth Dole.

Sickeningly, Democrat Sen. Patty Murray, despite her outrageous and bizarre claims that mass-murdering terrorist Osama bin Laden built "day care centers" for the liberated career gals of Afghanistan, "which we haven't done," is favored to win re-election in Washington, the same state that gives us "Baghdad" Jim McDermott. This from the state that once produced Scoop Jackson.

Editor's note: