As the Republican Party gears up for the start of its national
convention Monday, polls are showing President Bush making gains in Florida
and Pennsylvania and even making inroads
among Sunshine State Democrats.
In both states veterans are playing a key role.
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In Florida a statewide poll this week of 400 veterans conducted
for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and the Florida Times-Union showed a
clear preference for the incumbent commander in chief, with Bush leading
Kerry by 56 percent to 39 percent in the Florida poll, with 1 percent for
independent Ralph Nader and 4 percent undecided, the Sun-Sentinel reported.
In Pennsylvania the IssuesPA/Pew poll of likely voters shows Bush
leading Kerry by 45 percent to 44 percent. Among all registered voters, the
Massachusetts senator leads Bush 45 percent to 43 percent, according to the
Knoxville News.
Most surprising were the results of a poll of 500 Democrats and 500
Republicans, released Friday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which
showed that 11 percent of Democrats are willing to vote for Bush on Nov. 2,
compared to just 5 percent of Republicans who said they would cross over for
Kerry, the Tallahassee Democrat reported.
And while only 18 percent of Democrats consider themselves
conservative, more than one-third of conservative Democrats said they will
vote for Bush.
"I think we're seeing brand loyalty that largely disregards the
product," Florida State University political science professor Jeffrey
Mondak said of the twin surveys. "The strong partisan divide seems to
suggest that people are substituting party identity for thinking on issues
independently."
In both states the issue of the Vietnam service of Bush and Kerry
loomed large. Floridians asked whether they think Kerry is being honest
about his U.S. Navy service in Vietnam, 36 percent said "yes," 33 percent
said "no," and 31 percent were not sure. Asked if they think Bush is being
honest about his Air National Guard service, 42 percent said "yes," 31
percent said "no" and 27 percent were not sure.
Bush, however fared better than Kerry in the overall results of the
poll of veterans, reflecting a slice of the electorate that tends to favor
Republicans, based in part on the perception that the GOP puts a higher
priority on the nation's defense, the Sun-Sentinel reported.
Other poll results showed:
50 percent of the veterans said they think Bush "can better
handle the situation in Iraq," while 35 percent named Kerry and 15 percent
were unsure.
55 percent said Bush can better handle the war on terrorism,
while 33 percent said Kerry and 12 percent were unsure.
Pennsylvania voters listed among their most important concerns the
economy (17 percent), Iraq (17 percent), health care (17 percent) and
terrorism/security (16 percent). Bush is overwhelmingly preferred by voters
who care most about terrorism, 71 percent to 22 percent, but Kerry has an
edge among voters who listed the other concerns high.
The Swift Boat controversy has had an effect in both states. In
Florida, veterans' preferences were based on a range of issues going well
beyond the military backgrounds of the candidates, but many questioned the
honesty and trustworthiness of one candidate or the other, based mostly on
their actions after the war.
"Their service was OK for both of them. The after-war activities by
Kerry were not so good," said Robert Pachucki, 54, of Coral Springs, a
Vietnam War veteran who called Bush an honest man. "Kerry didn't just
participate [in anti-war demonstrations], he was a leader. Those poor men
who died over there, he might have known some of them. Their families
probably had a sense they were dying for nothing after he got done with it.
"I just don't trust Kerry. Based on his record, I would almost be
afraid he would sabotage the military."
Seventy-nine percent of likely Republican voters backed Bush on the
Iraq war, 12 percent said it was a mistake to invade, and 83 percent felt
the administration is making progress in fighting terrorism.
By contrast, 76 percent of Democrats felt invading Iraq was a
mistake. Only 25 percent thought the war on terror is making gains, while 59
percent said it isn't.
Mondak, the LeRoy Collins professor of political science at FSU,
studies voter behavior and voting trends. He said "there's a negligible
difference" between the Bush and Kerry positions on the Iraq war, yet
Democrats and Republicans showed they will "follow the leader" despite
disagreement on issues.
"The same Republicans who blasted Bill Clinton in 1992 for not
serving in Vietnam now think it's more honorable for George Bush not to have
gone," Mondak said. "And to Democrats, it seems that the greatest virtue
John Kerry possesses is that he is not George Bush."
Editor's note:
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2004 Elections
George W. Bush
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