Bush carried Missouri four years ago, winning its 11 electoral votes with 50 percent of the vote to 47 percent for Democrat Al Gore. Both campaigns have concentrated heavily on Missouri this year, with Bush coming to the state again this week, a day after a visit by Vice President Dick Cheney.

With one exception, Missouri has voted with the winner of every presidential election since 1900. No other state has that record of accuracy.

The poll, conducted for The Kansas City Star and KMBC-TV by Market Research Institute, is based on a survey of 600 Missourians contacted between July 13 and Tuesday who said they were likely to vote in the Aug. 3 primary. Of those surveyed, 36 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 32 percent as Republicans, and 28 percent said they were independents.

"You're looking at almost a dead heat," said Stephen Caliendo, a political scientist from Kansas City's Avila University. "I think Missouri is probably very similar at this point in time to other swing states, in that it is so closely divided."

The poll also found that 41 percent of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of Cheney, while 39 percent view the vice president favorably and 20 percent have no opinion. Kerry's running mate, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, was seen favorably by 51 percent, unfavorably by 20 percent, while 29 percent did not know.

Kerry did better than Bush among the respondents on the issues of protecting the middle class, improving health care, keeping America prosperous, improving education, holding down federal spending, strengthening Social Security and creating jobs.

Bush was favored for sharing the values of the respondents, holding the line on taxes, keeping the country safe from terrorists and handling the situation in Iraq.

On several issues, including sharing values and holding down spending, the candidates were separated by only a point or two.

The poll results pleased both campaigns.

"I think it's very clear that John Kerry's vision for an America that's stronger at home and respected around the world is catching on in Missouri," said Michael Golden, Kerry's Missouri communications director.

Said Bush campaign spokesman Danny Diaz: "This is a Republican state. We expect to carry its 11 electoral votes. We will not be outworked in Missouri."

Terrorism was viewed by 34 percent of those polled as the most serious international problem facing the nation, with 26 percent listing Iraq and 20 percent the economy. At 31 percent, health care was listed as the most serious domestic concern, with the economy and jobs next at 23 percent, and education and homeland security at 11 percent each.

On the country's direction, 45 percent described themselves as "worried," 32 percent "optimistic," 12 percent "angry," 8 percent "satisfied" and 3 percent unsure.

One of the poll respondents, Gary Cramer, a retired truck driver from Cabool, characterized his support for Kerry as choosing the lesser of two evils.

"I'm coming down anti-Bush," he said. "I don't like Bush's economic policies. In fact, I don't like any of his policies at all. I don't like the way he's handling the war in Iraq or any of it."

James Adams, a retired international consultant who lives in Forsyth, favored Bush because of his experience.

"You don't change horses in the middle of a stream," he said. "We need to get out of Iraq, and he has plans for doing that."

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