Morris: Bush Victory Margin Could Surprise

The presidential race may look close now, but key trends suggest that President Bush may win the election by a surprising margin.

That's the word from one-time White House strategist Dick Morris, who notes in his New York Post column today that Bush has moved up in the latest Rasmussen poll despite a two-week media blitzkrieg echoing charges by terrorism czar Richard Clarke that he was asleep at the wheel on al-Qaida.

Morris credits the Bush campaign's decision to unleash a torrent of negative ads, and notes that Karl Rove has plenty of material to work with from here on out.

• Gas Prices: Morris says Kerry is on the spot because he backs a higher gas tax. "Voters know that the president can't control oil prices, but they sure know he can raise or lower taxes."

• The Economy: The recent economic-growth and job-creation data are pulling the rug out from under Kerry inch by inch, says Morris. "A few more months like March, and his entire campaign theme will be made moot."

• Tax Increases: The notion that Kerry is a tax-and-spend liberal is beginning to take hold. Says Morris, "His promises to confine tax hikes to the rich are about as credible as an alcoholic's pledge only to drink at night."

• National Security: Kerry's attempt to invoke Vietnam to paper over his horrendous national security record has fallen flat. "It is evident that Kerry has no effective answer for Bush's charge that he would undermine homeland security," says Morris. "With the national focus shifting more and more to terrorism and away from the fading recession, Bush's lead becomes ever more daunting."

• Kerry's Light Work Habits: The one-time Clinton strategist says that because Kerry followed his two-week skiing vacation with shoulder surgery, he sidelined himself when he most needed to defend against Bush's attacks.

Editor's note: