Sabato Predicts GOP Gains in Congress

The president's party usually suffers losses in congressional elections, but renowned political guru Larry Sabato predicts the Republicans will add to their advantage in November just as they did in 2002.

"Given the nearly automatic pickup of 4-5 seats in redistricted Texas for the GOP, the odds are the Republican majority will expand rather than contract," writes Sabato, of the University of Virginia.

"Still, presidential coattails can matter, and if John Kerry wins the general election handily, the Republican margin could become very thin. Should George Bush manage a popular vote victory, the Republicans would nearly be guaranteed an enhanced House majority."

The House has 228 Republicans, 205 Democrats, one alleged "independent," self-described socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Sabato just lumps him in with the socialistic Dems), with one Republican vacancy in South Dakota that Sabato says is leaning Democrat for the special election in June.

The Senate, he says, "looks less like a slam-dunk for the Republicans," although the Dems have five open seats in the South.

Republicans have open seats in Illinois, Oklahoma and Colorado.

There are two vulnerable incumbents: Sen. Lisa Murkowki, R-Alaska, and the clown prince of the obstructionists, Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota.

Forget those dreams of Republicans getting a filibuster-proof 60-seat supermajority, he says. "Large gains for the GOP are now probably out of the question - unless Bush roars back in the fall. Even then, it's hard to see the GOP total getting past 54 or 55."

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