Newsweek Poll: Bush and Kerry in Dead Heat

President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are tied in a dead heat that, if the election were held today, could see a repeat of the 2000 presidential election, according to Newsweek's latest poll. Bush and Kerry received 48 percent among registered voters in a test match.

In the Feb. 19-20 Newsweek poll, Kerry beat bush by 48 percent to 45 percent, but with a margin of error of 3 percentage points, that result was a statistical tie.

In a three-way match-up with independent Ralph Nader, Bush would lead among registered voters, with 45 percent, followed by Kerry at 43 percent and Nader at 5 percent, again representing a statistical dead heat for Bush and Kerry.

Bush's approval rating remains unchanged from the February poll, holding at 48 percent (44 percent disapprove), and 46 percent of registered voters say they would like to see him re-elected, up slightly from 43 percent in the last Newsweek poll (50 percent disagree).

A majority (52 percent) of registered voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bush; 51 percent say the same of Kerry (10 percent say they "don't know" and 3 percent say they have never heard of Kerry).

When asked which phrases describe Bush, 67 percent say he has strong leadership qualities (55 percent say the same about Kerry).

Majorities also say that Bush is personally likable (69 percent vs. 60 percent for Kerry); that he says what he believes, not just what people want to hear (62 percent vs. 45 percent for Kerry); that they would trust him to make the right decisions during an international crisis (56 percent vs. 46 percent for Kerry); and that he is honest and ethical (54 percent vs. 53 percent for Kerry). Less than half (49 percent) say Bush cares about people like them (compared with 52 percent for Kerry).

On Bush's and Kerry's political leanings, 34 percent of registered voters say Bush is too conservative (60 percent disagree), while 38 percent say Kerry is too liberal (46 percent disagree).

When asked about Kerry's Senate vote last year against the administration's $87 billion request to fund the military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, almost half of registered voters (49 percent) say Kerry's vote will not affect their presidential vote; 27 percent say it will make them less likely to vote for him, 20 percent say more likely.

Forty-eight percent say Kerry is politically motivated and changes his position when he thinks it will improve his image or help him win an election; 38 percent say he is thoughtful and changes his position as circumstances change or he learns more about an issue.

On which issue will be the most important in determining their vote for president this year, 24 percent of registered voters picked the economy, followed by terrorism and homeland security (19 percent), health care, including Medicare (14 percent), American jobs and foreign competition (13 percent), the situation in Iraq (12 percent), education (9 percent) and taxes (3 percent).

Significant majorities say Bush would do a better job than Kerry handling terrorism and homeland security (56 percent vs. 35 percent) and the situation in Iraq (53 percent vs. 38 percent); 45 percent say he would do a better job of handling taxes (vs. 44 percent for Kerry).

Voters say Kerry would do a better job handling the economy (47 percent vs. 43 percent for Bush), health care, including Medicare (53 percent vs. 37 percent), American jobs and foreign competition (50 percent vs. 39 percent) and education (46 percent vs. 43 percent).

One year after the start of the Iraq war, a majority (57 percent) of Americans say the U.S. did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq (37 percent disagree).

Nonetheless, 36 percent say military action against Iraq has done more to increase the risk that large numbers of Americans will be killed in a future terrorist attack (up from 28 percent in the Dec. 18-19 Newsweek poll); 30 percent say it has done more to decrease the risk of attack, 27 percent say it has made no difference.

And more than half of Americans (55 percent) think the administration misanalyzed or misinterpreted reports that indicated Iraq had banned weapons (up from 36 percent in a Newsweek poll last May), while 35 percent disagree.

People are more evenly split on whether the administration purposely misled the public about evidence of banned weapons (46 percent agree, a record high in the Newsweek poll; 49 percent disagree).

A majority (53 percent) say the amount of money the U.S. is spending for postwar operations in Iraq is too high (34 percent say it's about right).

A majority (55 percent) also say the U.S. should reduce the number of military personnel in Iraq and begin bringing troops home; 27 percent say it should keep the same amount of troops, 10 percent say send more troops.

In the aftermath of the Madrid bombings, a majority (54 percent) of Americans say the attacks haven't had much effect on their opinion of the Bush administration's approach to fighting terror; 24 percent say they're more likely to think it's the right one, 12 percent say less likely.

Almost half (48 percent) say it's likely that terrorist attacks will be carried out close to Election Day in the U.S. (42 percent disagree) in an attempt to influence the elections here.

Sixty-six percent say it is likely that more terrorist attacks will be carried out against major U.S. cities, buildings or national landmarks between now and the November election (26 percent very likely, 40 percent somewhat likely).

A majority (51 percent) say it's likely that other countries in the U.S.-led coalition will follow the new Spanish government's lead in withdrawing troops from Iraq (36 percent disagree). Forty-two percent say in trying to achieve its foreign policy goals, the Bush administration has done the right amount to involve major allies and international organizations; 36 percent say not enough and 14 percent say too much.

This poll is part of the March 29 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, March 22).

For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older on March 18-19, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Editor's note: