Some analysts, particularly those in the United States and elsewhere in the West, have always believed Beijing was bluffing – that the Communist regime would never sacrifice its economic lifeline of trade, particularly its hefty trade surplus with America.

That's not likely to be true any longer, especially after the Communist-controlled Chinese Legislature votes to prohibit secession from any part of China.

The New York Times reported Friday that the law was primarily aimed at Taiwan. And, said some experts, it should be taken as a near guarantee that China would indeed invade Taiwan if it tries to formally separate from the mainland.

"This is a step the people have been demanding for many years," Yu Keli, a Taiwan expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, told the Times. "There can be no ambiguity that China will fight Taiwanese independence no matter what."

A group of National People's Congress committee heads submitted a draft of the law to the standing committee of the Legislature. The paper said it would be taken up by the end of the month.

Some hardliners in China have long sought a so-called "reunification" law – one that would require Taiwan be returned to the mainland by a specified date.

Though the new measure isn't seen specifically as a reunification law, it could eventually be used in much the same manner, say some analysts.

It wasn't clear how long it would take for the bill to become a law – the national congress acts on orders and instructions from party leaders – but its introduction may be tied to recent victories in Taiwan by parties opposed to President Chen Shui-bian, who is generally considered a pro-independence leader.

The United States has vowed to protect Taiwan from outside attacks, even enshrining Taiwan's defense in U.S. law.

But with American forces spread thin in numerous deployments around the world, including fighting the war on terror in Iraq and Afghanistan, it isn't at all certain Washington would, or even could, risk a confrontation with a nuclear-armed China.

It's possible that Beijing is aware of this. That would explain the timing of the introduction of this anti-secession measure. The mainland may just be getting its "legal" ducks in a row first.

Editor's note: