|
|
|||
|
|||
|
|
Sabato: Bush Has to Beat History
President Bush has to overcome more than widespread Democrat vote fraud to win re-election; he has to overcome history.
Story Continues Below "When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never - at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s," says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. Going over the final polls, he writes in the latest issue of his Crystal Ball e-newsletter, the most impressive finding is that the Gallup poll, for the first time in its seven-decade history, has given its final prediction as a tie: 49 percent for Bush, 49 percent for John Kerry, 1 percent for Ralph Nader and 1 percent divided among the Libertarian, Constitution and other tickets.
"We see Kerry surging a bit in Florida, where we just visited, and so we have given it to him. But we see Bush doing reasonably well in New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa. We also think Bush is doing better in Ohio, though still behind Kerry, but for our purposes here we are letting Bush retain those 20 electoral votes. This comes out to 269-269. Unless an elector from one side can be convinced to switch to the other and give one candidate the one extra electoral needed to capture a total of 270 electoral votes by the mid-December deadline, this will mean that the election will go to the House. A switch by an elector could easily result in Kerry's victory, since a West Virginia elector has already suggested that he will not vote for Bush (though he has also said that he will cast a blank ballot). ...
"Let us also note that if Bush holds Ohio and squeaks out Florida, as he did in 2000, then the electoral vote will not be particularly close, with Bush winning handily. ... It is important to mention that Kerry is not doing as well in Pennsylvania as he should be, but Bush appears to be gaining there."
Daschle Dashed?
Sabato sees the GOP building its majority in the U.S. Senate to 53-46-1, including a win by Mel Martinez over the shrill Betty Castor in Florida, Richard Burr edging Clintonista Erskine Bowles in North Carolina, Tom Coburn beating a surprisingly strong Brad Carson in Oklahoma and, glory of glories, John Thune toppling obstructionistic Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota. He also forecasts Republicans holding their own or posting slight gains in their majorities in the U.S. House and the governorships. Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
Inside Cover Stories
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Print Page 
Forward Page 
|
| All Rights Reserved © 2012 NewsMax.Com |