The news that bin Laden is threatening red states with retribution while promising safety to blue states, combined with polling trends in key states, suggests that the president might be in trouble.

Pollsters like Zogby and Rasmussen have been claiming all weekend that the bin Laden tape's impact has not shown up in their data.

But what voter would tell a pollster that he is intimidated by Osama? What's more, why haven't the polls shown the much-predicted shift for Bush in the wake of the al-Qaida chief's propaganda video?

While it's unlikely that any American would actually admit to a pollster that he'd let bin Laden intimidate him, the latest polling out of the key swing state New Jersey is very telling.

While statistically insignificant, the Quinnipiac poll today shows Kerry's lead widening from 4 points to 5. Could it be that terror-wary New Jerseyites may be fearful of living in a red state that could wind up on bin Laden's hit list?

Will security moms, fearful of another 9/11, risk coloring their state red? Is it possible that Osama has indeed succeeded in giving potential Bush voters second thoughts?

Why else is a state that trusts Bush to better handle terror by a wide margin - where 40 percent of voters consider terrorism their top priority - suddenly moving toward Kerry?

It may be impossible to tell whether any late movement toward Kerry is tied to the terrorist's tape. But this much is clear: Every swing state that votes for Kerry will be a feather in bin Laden's cap. And if Kerry wins, you can be sure the Arab world will credit the al-Qaida chief with engineering the victory.

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