As Senior Writer Sean Smith reports in the current issue of Newsweek, many of the high-placed studio executives, producers, Oscar strategists, publicists and Academy members interviewed think that "Fahrenheit's" chances depend on the results of the presidential election, and all say that a "Passion" best-picture nod is almost unthinkable.

"A lot of older Academy voters, who are largely Jewish, refuse to even see this movie," says one Oscar-campaign vet. "There's a level of animosity toward this film that is very real. When I talk to the members, I hear it over and over and over again."

Complicating matters, says one exec, is the sense, fair or not, that Mel Gibson marketed the film as something Hollywood couldn't, or wouldn't, make. "It's a little weird to trash the establishment, and then to come knocking at the establishment's door during awards season."

But if "The Passion" gets shut out, there's a concern that some Christians could protest and – worst-case scenario – boycott the Oscars. "The born-agains will come out screaming that it's another case of censorship," says one source. "The whole Sodom and Gomorrah thing about Hollywood will come up again."

Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit" faces an entirely different problem, Smith reports in the Oct. 25 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, Oct. 18). Most insiders believe its fate is inextricably tied to the election – but they can't agree on whether a Bush or a Kerry win helps Moore the most.

"If John Kerry wins, 'Fahrenheit' gets nominated," says one exec. "Then it becomes 'the movie that changed the course of American history,' and the perception will be that Moore contributed to Bush's loss."

Or not. "Its chances are zero if Kerry wins, because then the protest is over and everybody feels better," says another source.

But,says one Academy member, "If Kerry loses, it gets nominated as a big 'f--- you' to Bush."

Editor's Note: John Kerry wants to stop this film -- Get your copy of "Stolen Honor" and find out how you can help millions of Americans see "Stolen Honor" – Click Here Now.

Editor's note: