The Barna Research Group, which focuses on a Christian audience, found Bush leading Kerry among Catholics 53 percent to 36 percent. The same survey in May showed Bush with a much narrower lead of 48 percent to 43 percent.

While Catholics have traditionally voted for Democrats, they've trended toward the GOP in recent decades, particularly as national Democrats have increasingly taken left-wing stands on social issues.

Catholics have been identified by both parties as the key to capturing several swing states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan - and now even New Jersey.

While the American bishops have not openly condemned Kerry for his pro-abortion position, enough of them have addressed the topic to raise doubts about Kerry in the minds of Catholic voters.

While polls indicate that Catholics do not support denying pro-abortion politicians communion, they seem increasingly willing to apply their own sanctions by voting for their opponents.

As Bishop John M. Smith of the Diocese of Trenton put it back in March, "When we vote those people back into office, whom do we have to blame but ourselves?"

Editor's note: