Sabato: Hate Is the Issue, and Bush Can't Ignore It

The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato, one of the nation's most potent political prognosticators, says that hate is the common denominator driving the Democrats this year and that the Bush campaign must pay attention or suffer.

President Bush joins Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton as the only presidents in the past 50 years reviled and detested by the opposition, he says.

"But there is something new. In 1972 Democrats' hatred of Richard Nixon was not enough to produce a strong nominee against him. In fact, Democrats were so unconcerned about electability that they chose perhaps the weakest possible candidate - George McGovern, who lost in a November landslide. Likewise, in 1996 the Republicans' powerful desire to beat Bill Clinton did not yield a potent nominee. ...

"In 2004 however, Democrats are clearly going with their heads not their hearts (even as we approach the Feast of Saint Valentine). Rightly or wrongly, the activists voting in the early contests are often passing over their first choice and selecting the candidate they believe can win in November. Thus, the Democrats of 2004 may accomplish a feat that eluded the Democrats of 1972 and the Republicans of 1996," Sabato writes today in his Crystal Ball newsletter.

"On the other hand, that assumes that Democrats are actually picking the most electable candidate. For all of his attractive advantages, John Kerry is still a liberal Democrat from Massachusetts and Ted Kennedy's colleague in the U.S. Senate, with much the same voting record as Teddy. It is difficult to imagine Kerry carrying any Southern state, nor winning most of the Border states or Rocky Mountain states. His victory, if it is to come, must be fashioned almost precisely on the no-margin-for-error Gore 2000 model - with perhaps a vice presidential nominee putting a marginal Bush state or two in play.

"Still, this is turning into a rough and tumble few months for President Bush. The Democrats have dominated the news media – every channel, every hour, with the exception of the State of the Union address. ... [T]he Democrats' unity of opposition to Bush on every issue has kept the campaign a symphony rather than a cacophony, building toward a crescendo of anti-Bush fervor. The Democrats are pumped. The Bush White House appears blissfully ignorant of that reality, at least early in the campaign season."

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