Sabato: Dean Leads Dems; GOP Leads U.S. but Unlikely to Win California

Political analyst Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, says Howard Dean is the tallest of the Democrats' Nine Dwarves.

He writes that Dick Gephardt and John Kerry are tied for second, followed by Joe Lieberman, John Edwards and Bob Graham. Bringing up the rear, naturally, are Dennis Kucinich, Carol Mosely Braun and Al Sharpton.

"When the story of the 2004 campaign is written, Howard Dean will be THE phenomenon, even if he does not get the nomination - much as John McCain was the best story of the 2000 campaign for president. Dean has come from nowhere, much as Jimmy Carter did in 1976 and Bill Clinton did (to a lesser degree) in 1992," Sabato writes.

"The electricity surrounding Dean is now so intense that it will take major breaks for another candidate to snatch the prize from the Vermont governor. This is not to say that it cannot be done. Dean is devilishly divisive ... ."

With Dean styling himself as the anti-Bush, another Dem will have to pose as the anti-Dean. Sabato expects this role to fall to "the steady if boring Dick Gephardt or the heroic if aloof John Kerry." Lieberman "appears to be too conservative to get the nomination," and Edwards "seems to be too inexperienced."

GOP Gains Predicted

Sabato figures Republicans can pick up two Senate seats in 2004. Their best shots: Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida and South Dakota. They risk losing seats in Illinois and Alaska.

"The structure of the seats up in 2004 automatically favors the GOP. First, there are 19 Democratic seats to 15 Republican seats on the ballot. Second, 22 states with Senate seats up were carried by George W. Bush in 2000; just 12 states were carried by Al Gore."

In the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans have a 229-206 advantage. Sabato guesses the GOP will gain a few seats.

Republicans hold 26 of the 50 governorships. With three governorships at stake this year and 11 in 2004, he expects little change, perhaps a GOP gain of one or two.

Beware of Bustamante

In California, Gov. Gray Davis still has a chance to stay in power, Sabato says, thanks to the power of incumbency and support from such Democrat bastions as Big Labor and the Los Angeles Times "and most of all, a pretty good case to make that the recall process itself is fundamentally flawed."

"Should Davis be recalled, it is already obvious that the succession battle comes down to just two people, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante (D) and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)."

Despite all the media coverage, Arianna Huffington and Peter Ueberroth "have no real chance" to be elected. The wild card: conservative Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock.

Schwarzenegger's "very liberal positions of social issues have alienated many conservatives, and the recent revelations about Schwarzenegger (drug use, group sex, and the rest) will make it even more difficult for those conservatives to unite behind the actor. Schwarzenegger and McClintock are splitting the Republican vote, and unless McClintock decides to drop out before October 7, it will be exceedingly difficult for Schwarzenegger to win part two of the ballot."

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2004 Elections
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