Too Late for Hillary?

In 1968, Vice President Hubert Humphrey snagged the Democrat presidential nomination without winning a single primary. And before his assassination that same year, U.S. Sen. Robert Kennedy was the odds-on favorite to win his party's nod, even though he entered the race with just five months to go before the convention.

Still, some political experts are saying that for U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, time has just about run out for her to get into the 2004 race.

Oct. 4 "was the 12th anniversary of Bill Clinton running," Democratic Party spokeswoman Deborah DeShong told Fox News earlier this week. "So most people have seen that date as a benchmark as the latest date a candidate could get in the race to win."

DeShong isn't alone in warning that the clock is ticking for any Hillary 2004 presidential campaign.

"It’s legally practically impossible for anybody, certainly after the turn of the year, to come in and win,” said Donald Robinson, professor of government at Smith College.

John J. Pitney Jr., professor of government at Claremont McKenna College, gives Sen. Clinton a little more time, but not much.

"Theoretically, a candidate could win a nomination without running in New Hampshire, but it is hard to see how such a route would lead to the White House,” he told Fox News.

But is it really so hard to envision a successful presidential bid by someone who enters the race after New Hampshire? After all, while both President Bush and his predecessor, Mrs. Clinton's husband, ran in Granite State's primary, they both lost that race.

What's more, when Bill Clinton entered the race in October 1991 he was a complete unknown who needed time to build a national organization and name recognition, and win over the party's big-money donors.

Mrs. Clinton faces no such obstacles.

She has a campaign organization warming up in the bullpen while ostensibly working for Gen. Wesley Clark. She raises more money with the snap of her fingers than any other Democrat except her husband. And she's the most recognizable elected politician in the world, with the possible exception of President Bush.

During the 1992 race, the nomination wasn't considered settled till New York's April primary. Even then, more than a few Democrats griped that making Clinton their standard-bearer would lead to disaster.

As the state's make-or-break primary approached, former New York City Mayor Ed Koch used his WABC Radio show to beg party leaders to find someone else.

"It happens that Bill Clinton has no credibility," Koch complained at the time.

Even though New York Gov. Mario Cuomo had taken a pass on the New Hampshire primary, and had repeatedly told reporters that he wasn't interested in running, speculation still swirled that he would enter the race as the party's white knight - and somehow steal the nomination away from the "Comeback Kid."

While conventional wisdom suggests that the 2004 Democratic nomination will be a done deal by New Hampshire or shortly thereafter, some say that the nominee won't be a lock until the convention in July.

"The contest for next year's Democratic presidential nomination will be the most unpredictable in half a century," wrote New York Times op-ed columnist Ashbel Green a few months ago.

"There is no front-runner now, and there is not likely to be one by next March, the time that most political experts and journalists usually figure the issue will be decided."

Green sees the possibility of a brokered convention "if several candidates remain in play in July 2004, when the delegates convene in Boston."

And if that happens, guess who'll be ready to assume the role of Democratic Party white knight this time.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
2004 Elections
Sen. Hillary Clinton

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