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GOP Senators in Uphill Battle for '08 John Mercurio, NewsMax.com
As Senate Republicans brace for a 2008 landscape in which good news from the campaign trail seems few and far between, perhaps the most encouraging fact is that the election is still months away.
Still, omens abound for the once-dominant party, which needs to pick up at least one Senate seat to retake power, but faces a playing field heavily stacked against them.
They're defending 22 seats in 2008 (including that held until recently by the late Sen. Craig Thomas); Democrats are fighting to hold just 12. Of the GOP-held seats, 10 are considered possible Democratic takeovers – especially those in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Of the Democratic seats, Republicans are realistically eyeing just four, particularly the Louisiana seat held by two-term Democrat Mary Landrieu.
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GOP Money Woes
The GOP's latest headache: Having to explain why traditionally underfunded Democrats are now leading the money chase. To wit: Reps. Mark Udall, who's running for an open seat in Colorado, and Tom Allen, who is vying to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) in Maine, each raised more than $1 million in the second quarter of 2007; Each Democrat also has more than $2 million in the bank. Comedian Al Franken raised $300,000 more than the Republican he hopes to unseat, Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota, during that same period. Meanwhile, two veteran Republican senators – Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and John Warner of Virginia – raised relatively small amounts of money, fueling already rampant rumors that they'll retire in 2008. And the news gets even better for Democrats; the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee enjoyed a nearly 4-1 fundraising edge on June 30th over its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee. That gap, if sustained, would help Democrats widen the playing field to target races once viewed as long-shots, while they limit GOP opportunities.
Despite ominous warnings this spring from NRSC Chairman John Ensign about the party's dire financial straits, not one incumbent Republican senator forked over funds from their campaign kitties to the NRSC during this year's second quarter. Only one Senator, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, wrote a personal check to the committee for $28,500.
Democrats are fighting the urge to feel giddy. "We are well on track to meeting our goal," said Matt Miller, a DSCC spokesman.
Here's a quick look some key races:
Colorado: Democrats have united squarely behind Udall, son of the late Mo Udall and a five-term Congressman from Boulder. While he has compiled a relatively liberal voting record in the House, he's viewed as the early frontrunner against ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer, a conservative Republican, in a state where Democrats have won the two marquis races (for Senate and governor) in the past two cycles. Still, Schaffer has impressed party leaders with his early efforts. National Democrats plan to hold their nominating convention next summer in Denver, an event where Udall, running in a state that GOP presidential candidates usually carry comfortably, might want to remain low-key.
Louisiana: Just as they did six years ago, Republicans are aggressively targeting Landrieu, who narrowly defeated a mediocre GOP challenger in 2002. But, of course, much has changed in the Bayou State since then; Republicans believe Landrieu is even more vulnerable following Hurricane Katrina, after which much of her base of African-American and other New Orleans residents moved out of the state. "Her base of voters is just absent," Fisher said. "They're spread out across the country now." Still, in a recurring challenge they face in key races, Republicans have yet to recruit a top-tier challenger for Landrieu, who is sitting comfortably atop a $2.8 million war chest.
Maine: The most prominent New England Republican up for reelection in 2008, Collins has worked hard to smooth any partisan edges that could cause her trouble next year. Recently, she broke with President Bush on Iraq, for example, and she has been critical of several administration priorities over the past year. Still, perhaps her biggest headache stems from another Maine Republican, her colleague Sen. Olympia Snowe, who is markedly more popular, and moderate, than Collins. Democrats have rallied behind Allen, who so far has defied early skeptics by running a sharply disciplined campaign. Still, a May poll gave Collins a nearly 2-1 lead, including support from 35 percent of Democrats.
Minnesota: Folks dismissed the idea that Franken, a former "Saturday Night Live" writer/comedian-turned-liberal author/talk-show host, would pose a serious challenge to Coleman. Since announcing his Senate bid on Valentine's Day, however, Franken has worked hard to prove them wrong. He's raised loads of campaign cash and maintained a blistering series of critiques at Coleman. Coleman has moved away recently from an unpopular president, and his unpopular war, but he also has refused to engage his would-be challenger, in part because Franken still may face a tough primary fight with a wealthy Democrat, trial attorney Mike Ciresi.
New Hampshire: Both parties agree that Sen. John Sununu, a Republican in a state that's rapidly moving into the Democratic column, is the most vulnerable incumbent Senator up for reelection in 2008, of either party. That's especially true if Sununu faces a rematch with his 2002 Democratic opponent, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Recent polls show her leading him by double-digit margins. There's just one hitch for Democrats: Shaheen seems reluctant to run. (She's expected to make a decision in September). Even if Shaheen bows out, Sununu could face a tough race; Two other Democrats, Katrina Swett and Steve Marchand, hold the Republican's support well under 50 percent.
Oregon: Oregon Democrats -- who have tried repeatedly to target Sen. Gordon Smith, only to watch him prevail in this Democratic-friendly state -- are grappling this year with the same challenge Republicans face elsewhere: Recruiting failure. After their top prospect, Rep. Peter DeFazio, declined to run, they turned to state House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who is thinking seriously about the race. Until Democrats have an announced candidate, raising money and building a case for Smith's defeat, it's hard to read this race. But with Smith running on a national ticket in a state that hasn't voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1984, it's clearly one to watch.
Virginia: All eyes this summer are on Warner, the Commonwealth's most popular politician, who's viewed as increasingly likely to retire in 2008. If he does so, two years after his party lost the bitter Senate battle between George Allen and Jim Webb, look for this race to become a national barnburner. Rep. Tom Davis, a social moderate from the Democratic stronghold of Northern Virginia, is expected to run if Warner bows out. If he does, Davis will likely face a challenge from his party's right wing (former Gov. Jim Gilmore, perhaps?). Waiting in the wings: Another former governor, Democrat Mark Warner, who has made no secret of his desire to serve in the Senate.
Hagel's Fight
Sen. Hagel, meanwhile, a decorated Vietnam hero, is facing another battle: Re-election. And before he can even worry about a Democratic challenger, the self-styled GOP maverick faces a primary challenge from Jon Bruning, the state Attorney General and darling of social conservatives. Bruning strongly backs President Bush and the Iraq war, and he opposes Hagel for criticizing both.
"In Nebraska, it's widely believed that Senator Hagel has just left the Republican Party," Bruning said recently in a NewsMax interview. "He's voting with the Democrats on most issues of import, and Nebraskans, especially conservative Republican Nebraskans, are just frustrated. Every day that goes by, it seems, he does something else to aggravate people."
Hagel, who has openly mulled retirement, raised eyebrows in Washington and Omaha recently when he filed a fundraising report showing he had barely picked up the phone during the second quarter of 2007. "If he does retire, I'm certainly able and willing to take him on," said Bruning, who dramatically outraised the incumbent.
It might not be that simple, however. If Hagel bows out, GOP insiders believe more prominent Republicans (such as Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, a former governor, or former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub) will run.
Optimism
Despite the individual challenges, Senate GOP strategists remain upbeat, noting that they normally perform better than expected in red states during presidential election years. "We will have a nominee who will fire up our base, but we also hope to have a Democratic nominee who's fires up our base," said Rebecca Fisher, a spokesman for the NRSC, citing Sen. Hillary Clinton as the GOP's "base-case scenario" for a Democratic presidential nominee who motivates Republicans to vote against her and, theoretically, for GOP Senate candidates. "We're happy with our odds on that aspect."
"The map looks tough, but at the end of the day, it comes down to a handful of seats that we're defending and pursuing," Fisher added. "It's not as much of a mountain as people seem to think it is."
© NewsMax 2007. All rights reserved.
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