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Sen. Kyl: Iran Like 1930s Germany Kenneth R. Timmerman The United States has a choice when it comes to dealing with the threats posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, says Senator Jon Kyl, R-Arizona: It's either the 1930s, or the 1980s. "During the run up to World War II, Europe failed to heed the warnings" coming from Germany and from Western leaders such as Winston Churchill, Kyl told an audience at the American Enterprise Institute on Thursday. Hitler was explicit about his intentions. So are Iran's current leaders. As Churchill wrote later, recalling Europe's failures to stop the explicit Nazi threat in the 1930s, "there never was a war in all history easier to prevent by timely action." Alternately, the United States could chose to follow Ronald Reagan's example in the 1980s, when he confronted the Soviet Union and brought the Cold War to an end. "Natan Sharansky knew we would win when he read Ronald Reagan's characterization of the USSR as the evil empire," Kyl said, referring to the then-emprisoned Soviet refusnik, who went on to become an Israeli cabinet minister. "Once you understand your enemy, you can defeat him. If you have the will!" Kyl added. Story Continues Below
Recognized in Congress as a clear thinker, the soft-spoken Senator from Arizona doesn't seek the limelight for his foreign policy views. But over the past few years, he has spoken out repeatedly on the threat from Iran. With Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, he co-chairs the Committee on the Present Danger, a bipartisan group dedicated to raising public awareness of the threat from Islamic Iran. Kyl believes the Iranian regime is vulnerable in four key areas the United States could exploit without resorting to military action. Iranian Public Opinion Two recent opinion polls show that Iranians are well-disposed toward America and want democracy, Kyl noted. "61% of Iranians were willing to tell pollsters – over the phone, no less – that they oppose the current Iranian system of government," he said. "More telling, over 79% of Iranians support a democratic system" instead of the current system of absolute clerical rule. After reading these poll results, Kyl said he was reminded of a comment from Iran's Supreme Leader in December 2005, "What destroys regimes is the people's resistance, their determination, and their struggle Ahmadinejad's Domestic Troubles The fiery Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is having political troubles of his own, Kyl reminded his audience. Last December's municipal elections were a "profound humiliation," where "90% of his allies lost." More recently, the Supreme Leader appears to have "given a green light to parliament to criticize" Ahmadinejad's performance. Iran's Weak Economy By the Iranian government's own statistics, unemployment had reached 11.5% for the year ending in March, and inflation in some areas topped 25%. "This economic deterioration has occurred in spite of a 37% increase in Iran's hard currency earnings, derived mainly from oil," Kyl added So where was all the money going? "Much is being spent on a WMD program, on Hezbollah and on insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan," Kyl said. This has created discontent inside Iran, he added.
Despite the fact it is the second-biggest oil export within OPEC, Iran spent more than $7 billion last year subsidizing gasoline imports for Iranian consumers. Subsidies now consume a huge percentage of the national income. Gas rationing recently has led to riots. "It is clear that all is not well in Iran," Kyl said. "So we must now determine, what are the steps we can use to take the opportunities we have been presented." Plenty of Options Kyl believes the United States has plenty of options short of military action to exploit Iran's weaknesses. "Through a careful strategy of divestment, smart sanctions and asset freezing, international trade limits, and better targeting of Iran's leaders, we can follow up on the existing discontent on the street," he said. While no one can predict the ultimate results, Kyl believed that tough sanctions and divestment, coupled with a better targeted public diplomacy campaign aimed at supporting the pro-democracy movement inside Iran, could have dramatic effects. "The eventual result could be regime change," he said. "Nearer term, pressure could cause policy shifts with the existing regime." Kyl blamed the Clinton administration for a mistaken policy of making concessions to Iranian elites, noting that a 1998 decision to allow the import of pistachios, rugs and caviar benefitted "the family of the former President," Hashemi-Rafsanjani, who has built a "fiefdom" in the pistachio trade. While noting that "force is not the best policy" toward Iran, Kyl warned that "failure to take advantage of some or all of these tools only serves to make it more likely that force may be used." Ronald Reagan once observed that "history teaches that war begins when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap." Kyl noted that for the Iranian regime, "the price of their aggression has been too cheap for too long." © NewsMax 2007. All rights reserved. Editor's note:
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