Here follows a quick and dirty analysis of the President's Iraq speech which just ended 35 minutes ago:
The "new" plan — or The Way Forward — is fatally flawed for one key reason: When we rely on the Iraqis to do anything, we are bound to fail.
Iraqis have several fatal character flaws: They play both sides of everything; they tell you whatever you want to hear.
The Iraqi army and police are, in fact the problem. By day they wear the Iraqi National uniform and draw a pay check (paid by Uncle Sam, by the way) but by night they are the militias and the death squads!
All recent public opinion polls show that over 60 percent of Iraqis favor killing American soldiers.
How high will that number climb after U.S. troops begin middle-of-the-night house-to-house searches, scaring the hell out of women and children? Will it climb to 80 percent or 90 percent?
As our troops — now "paired" with Iraqi units — descend on Baghdad neighborhoods, the death squads and militias will know in advance from the Iraqis what the game plan is and they will evacuate and go elsewhere. We have no chance of ending this internecine Muslim civil war — none whatsoever.
The Iraqis are incredibly corrupt. The last two prime ministers, Alawi and Jafaari, who were in office within the past 12 months, are alleged to have stolen millions of dollars of U.S. aid funneled into Iraq and moved to London where each is living in the lap of luxury! And Alawi just two years ago was hailed at the White House as a hero and spoke to a Joint Session of Congress — a very prestigious honor!
We Americans make a fatal mistake every time we attach our views and beliefs and aspiration onto others. For Bush to say, "Sunni and Shi'a want to live in peace" is a mistaken premise. Their definition of peace is the elimination of their Muslim enemies. Thus the revenge killings, payback, torture, and beheadings. These are Old Testament people and we are New Testament believers. And the two don't agree on anything.
Now, the politics here at home:
Bush is becoming radioactive even among many Republicans. When a staunch conservative hawk on the war like Sam Brownback opposes Bush's Surge Plan, then you know the dam is breaking.
The Democrats will harden their anti-war position because it is no longer a solely leftist position; it is now the majority opinion in the nation.
Despite their opposition to the surge, they will not be able to stop it; the troops will already be the by the time Congress acts.
The GOP presidential nomination for 2008 is in total disarray. McCain is on the verge of being an Iraq war casualty; Rudy is beset with issues; Romney is a flip-flopper a la his fellow Bay Stater, John Kerry. Huckabee, Brownback, Hagel, Keating? None of then excite people. Look for a new candidate later this year.
Obama will announce for president — and he will not fade quite as quickly as people think because he is viewed as pure on the war.
Hillary is in deep trouble in Iowa and New Hampshire; caucus goers and primary voters do not like her and local polling shows her losing badly.
Conclusion: We are in a pickle — a self-created pickle. Our political establishment, with the aid of a compliant media, misled the American people into this mess. Bush and the GOP leadership and the Democrats like Hillary and Edwards and Kerry all got us into this mess. 2008 will be about who can get us out of it.
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