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Israeli Official: Iran Could Have Nukes in 2007 Kenneth R. Timmerman, NewsMax Tel Aviv, Israel – Iran could have a nuclear weapon in 2007, Israeli officials tracking Iran's nuclear weapons development told NewsMax in Tel Aviv. However, this represents the "worst-worst case scenario. It is not our leading assessment," they added. The officials agreed to share elements of their analysis of Iran's nuclear timeline, on condition that neither their name nor their agency was identified. The consensus estimate of all elements of Israel's intelligence community was that it would take Iran three years, and possibly more, to acquire the technology, know-how, and special nuclear materials to make weapons. But that estimate is based solely on the programs and facilities that Iran has declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna, they acknowledged. Israeli analysts agree that the discovery of clandestine facilities where Iran might be enriching uranium could significantly change the timeline. And they acknowledge that there are major gaps in their knowledge. "We are debating just how big those gaps are," the officials said. "We wonder if we are seeing see the iceburg, or just the tip." Since the 1973, when Israeli intelligence failed to predict the Arab military buildup that led to the nearly-disastrous Yom Kippur war, a red team within the intelligence community provides alternate scenarios to those that have emerged by consensus.
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Intelligence insiders refer to this unit as the "Devil's advocate." "Their job is to tell us we're wrong," the officials said. Noting that the red team estimate is "fairly close to our own," the officials said the red team assessment that Iran could have a nuclear weapon by next year was based on the existence of secret nuclear facilities in Iran. The consensus view is that while Iran may be operating secret facilities, the main work on its nuclear development program is being carried out in plants in Isfahan and Natanz that Iran opened to IAEA inspections in 2003. Work at those declared facilities is progressing rapidly. At the current pace, Israeli analysts agree that Iran will pass the "technological threshold" allowing them to master the complex processes of uranium enrichment over the next six to 12 months, at most. That is the biggest hurdle, they believe. After that, it's just a matter of time before they actually enrich enough uranium to make weapons. The former head of Israeli military intelligence, Maj.-Gen. Aharon Ze'evi Farkash, used to call the technological threshold "the point of no return." But Israel has abandoned the term in recent months, for fear it gives them impression that nothing can be done to roll back the Iranian program through diplomatic means.
Iran is currently enriching uranium using a single cascade of 164 centrifuges, according to Iran's latest declarations to the IAEA. The Iranians told the IAEA in April that they were in the process of installing two more 164-machine cascades at Natanz. They have refused IAEA requests to install remote monitoring cameras at the plant, so the IAEA cannot be certain how much uranium the Iranians have enriched. Once Iran masters the processes needed to keep the smaller cascades up and running continuously for a few months, they will have passed the technology threshold, the Israeli officials said. Iran has told the IAEA they intend to build a "pilot plant" with 3,000 centrifuges next year. Israel estimates that construction and production trials at that plant will take another nine months. But the size of that facility indicates it is anything but a pilot plant. Indeed, using similar technology and a similar number of centrifuges, Pakistan obtained its first "significant quantity" of highly-enriched uranium – around 25 kilograms, or enough for one bomb – in just one year. The Israelis believe Iran can do the same. That brings the timeline to 2009. This is what the analysts call their "worst case" scenario. A more probably scenario, they believe, would add anywhere from 12 to 18 months to that timeline, especially if Iran encounters problems in the current phase of operating the experimental enrichment cascade. Rather than six months, "a more probable analysis is that it will take one year to 18 months to pass the technological threshold," the officials said. "When we brief the political decision-makers," the analysts said, "we stress the technology threshold and this worst case assessment" of nuclear capability by 2009. "This is a firm and solid assessment," they added. The latest National Intelligence Estimate, briefed to Congress by National Director of Intelligence John Negroponte, forecasts that Iran will not achieve nuclear capable until the early part of the next decade," although U.S. officials have never said publicly why they believe the Iranian program will be delayed.
Editor's note:
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