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On Iraq, Russia, and Obama John LeBoutillier On Wednesday, the much hyped Iraq Study Group (ISG) — aka the Baker Commission — presents its recommendations to the president in the morning and then releases it to the public in the afternoon. The meat of the report has been already carefully leaked by the leaker-in- chief — Jim Baker himself. (Baker has been a master of the self-serving leak for 30 years.)
Iraq Policy
The truth behind this ISG report is simple: G.W. Bush is not going to allow one of his "dad's" pals to ride in and rescue him from the mess he has made in Iraq.
G.W. sees Baker as an agent for his father and the first Bush Foreign Policy Team (Scowcroft, Baker, Eagleburger, etc.) which always opposed the invasion and occupation of Iraq. President Bush and his father never talk about Iraq — and the former president has let it be known that he views his son's Iraq policy as a total disaster.
National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley went on "Meet the Press" Sunday to shoot down the Baker Report in advance. He minimalized its importance by mentioning that other reports are also due soon — from State and Defense.
Understand what it going on here: G.W. Bush is taking on all comers — the Democrats, the remaining Republicans after the November election debacle, the media, the American people — and most of all his father — on the signature issue of his presidency: Iraq.
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This was presaged weeks ago when he said, "We're staying in Iraq — I am determined to do so — even if only Laura and Barney are with me."
This "us against the world" mentality is no way to lead a country.
No wonder only 30 percent of the American people now support the way Mr. Bush is conducting his Iraq policy.
Prediction: Despite the entire political world wanting a major change in Iraq policy to lead to a draw down of troops, Bush isn't going to do it. Period.
He will ride it out — unless, and until, a cataclysmic event on the ground, forces U.S. policy to change.
Moscow Under More Scrutiny
In the week since my last piece on the murder of Aleksandr Litvinenko, the arrows are now pointing even more directly at Moscow. Radioactivity on planes that flew to and from Moscow, more people coming forward, and British intelligence tracing the polonium 210 to a nuclear reactor in Russia, all must be making President Putin squirm just a little bit.
The revelation that months earlier Putin had asked British Prime Minister Tony Blair to stop Litvinenko from speaking out is yet another nail in Putin's deniability coffin.
He has shown his skin to be incredibly thin — and his patience short. During his presidency, 18 anti-Putin reporters have been murdered.
None of these cases has been solved.
His behavior makes his guilt in this matter all the more plausible.
The British investigation appears to moving at lightning speed; look for a big break in this case this week.
Putin will try to continue to deny his involvement — but new evidence will surface this week pointing at him.
His defense — that he is being framed — seems more dubious as each day passes.
Obama Enjoys Spotlight
Obama-mania is an easily explained phenomenon - and it has little to do with him.
The seeming national love affair with a complete unknown is a total rejection of the two parties and the establishment candidates running for president. Hillary, McCain, the Bushes, and all the others who have been around for a while are seen as old — and right now a cynical, sour, and tired-of-the-same-old-same-old American public is having a delightful time fantasizing about a total blank slate with no record.
Obama is everyone's presidential fantasy right now; they project onto him what they want in a president. Like all fantasies, this one won't last long. Team Hillary is already plotting their usual savage, underhanded attacks — and Obama will be lucky if his ratings last for six months.
Politics is tough business — and Obama so far has been given a free ride. If he chooses to run, things will change for him — and fast.
However, his meteoric rise proves a point made here two years ago: the public wants a totally new face, one not tied to the establishment — and independent.
Obama is a liberal Democrat and will soon be seen as one; his star will inevitably fade.
But the thirst will remain for that independent third candidate — who is a Reagan conservative — who can take on the political establishment and defeat it.
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