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The Year Ahead Susan Estrich It is not yet 2007, and the field of Democratic contenders for the presidency in 2008 is filling up. John Edwards is in, as is Joe Biden and Tom Vilsack. The two former nominees could end up either in or out: Kerry shouldn't run, but might, and Gore is a complete wild card. The rock stars are getting ready to plunge: Hillary is officially looking. So is Obama. And for both, the conclusion will be inescapable. If not now, when? It just might be the most exciting Democratic race in 40 years. The Hillary-Obama matchup as a main event is tough to beat — not just a woman and a black, but this woman taking on this black man. Whether Barack Obama is qualified to be president is a question that will be much discussed. But what he has accomplished to date in becoming a national figure is evidence of the sort of talent for the business of politics that a presidential nominating campaign both tests and rewards. Can he go from state to state dazzling people, winning in the rooms you have to work, inspiring volunteers and caucus goers, and collecting contributions? That's an easy question. Story Continues Below
If you were inventing a candidate to challenge Hillary on both high drama and sheer toughness, you couldn't do better than a black man running to her left on the war, and on the future to her past, with the kind of rock star charisma and all-things-to-all-people appeal that reminds most people more of Bill than Hillary. But you also have a "second tier" that in another year might be considered more than that: Edwards, the former North Carolina Senator and vice-presidential nominee who is currently leading the Iowa polls; Sen. Joe Biden, who sets the bar on foreign policy expertise; and even the two former nominees, each of them imagining that the party will turn to them to fulfill their fates. There is certainly a scenario that has one of the white men riding to the rescue (of course, it just looks that way) when or if one of the front-runners stumbles and we really are forced to confront the question of whether we will nominate the other. Is America ready for a woman or black president is a big question, and its legitimacy will be debated almost as much as its merits, but it won't go away. The challenge for the "other" candidates is to command attention, which is what John Edwards tried to do by choosing a usually slow news week to announce. He obviously didn't count on Gerald Ford dying, much less on him having as much to say after as he did beforehand. The fact that Ford is getting so much press for having been willing to criticize the current president is telling. George Bush is more newsworthy than Gerald Ford. Former presidents and would-be presidents have this much in common. Hillary and Obama attract media attention like magnets. For Edwards/Biden/Vilsack, etc., there must be efforts to create it. Of course, everyone has the potential to stand out at a debate, and in primary campaigns there tend to be many debates, but even those are down the road. In the meantime, amid the business of building an organization, collecting money and seeking endorsements, criticizing those who command more attention than you is one of the easiest ways to draw flies. Bush and McCain are the two most obvious targets, and the war, the obvious topic. "Will Democrats really stand up to Bush?" people are always asking me. Usually, they're thinking about the Democrats in the House and Senate. The Democrats running for president certainly will. They have no reason not to. And there's a bumper crop of them, already going, with every incentive to be as noisy as possible when they do.
COPYRIGHT 2006 CREATORS SYNDICATE INC. Editor's note:
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