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Short Political Shelf Life John LeBoutillier It seems 2008 has begun — even before 2006 has ended. Already Hillary is in a very weak fourth place in the latest Iowa poll and barely leading in New Hampshire. A total newbie — Barack Obama — is ahead or tied in both states! And John McCain is trailing Rudy Giuliani in New Hampshire, which he won in 2000. How can this happen? And why is it happening? Here is a theory: Until the advent of the Internet, talk radio, and cable news, a "news cycle" was one 24-hour period. So, when something happened at 8 a.m., we saw it on the 7 p.m. news. One news cycle per day. Period. So, if you were a politician, you hoped — prayed, actually — to get into that news cycle; it was the only way to get known. Free coverage was, and is, the goal of all political candidates. But with the advent of all this high-speed New Media, there are actually 24 news cycles per day. One per hour. Story Continues Below
So if something now happens at 8 a.m., it is on the news right away, and everyone knows about it within an hour or so. No longer do you have to wait until the evening news (this is the real reason the three network newscasts have declining audiences) to see the news. How does this impact politics? Simple: Because of so many compressed news cycles, the best-known politicians — i.e. Hillary, McCain, Gore, the Bushes — are seen all the time. And thus they suffer from a new phenomenon, one that most politicians could never have thought of having: over-exposure. Simply stated, the voters are sick and tired of the most-seen politicians. And, conversely, the voters love the newest politicians because they are like a breath of fresh air. Obama is new, the people aren't sick of him (yet), and thus he zooms to the top in the polls. The well-known and been-around-a-long time candidates such as Hillary, McCain, Gore, and the Bushes have simply worn out their welcome. Under the old one-news-cycle-per-day system, a candidate like Richard Nixon could be a national figure in the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s — and be on the national GOP ticket five times! And in his last race — 1972 — he won the largest majority in American history up to that point. So he had not been over-exposed. But today those four decades worth of free publicity would be compressed into 5-10 years. Hillary Clinton, for example, has been in the news non-stop since late 1991 when her husband announced for president. That is 15 years of constant coverage. No wonder she at once has such a high name ID and such a low rating in Iowa and New Hampshire. The people are simply tired of her and want someone new. The same with McCain; he's been in the news a lot for a decade and has also worn out his welcome. Using this short political shelf life theory, here is an intriguing thought: One year from today, a mere few weeks from the 2008 Iowa caucuses, will Barack Obama have already worn out his welcome? Will voters already be looking for yet another fresh new face? Will all the free publicity and coverage have already made Obama old news? Similarly, who will be the new face that GOP voters are clearly searching for? They, too, want someone new. It is heresy in politics to even think there can be too much free publicity; candidates will die to get coverage. But the New Media has changed all the rules. And rather than cherishing experience and knowledge, maybe the American electorate now wants the latest and spiffiest new product. We will soon see. Editor's note:
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