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GOP Holds Senate, Bush Campaign Director Says Ronald Kessler WASHINGTON -- Republicans will likely hold their majority in the Senate, but keeping control of the House will be "tough," according to Collister "Coddy" Johnson, the national field director for the 2004 Bush-Cheney campaign.
Johnson, who worked for Karl Rove in the White House, said the National Journal's Hotline figures are a good predictor of what the outcome on Tuesday might be in the Senate. The numbers currently show Republicans winning 48 Senate seats and Democrats winning 49 seats, with three seats up for grabs.
"I think this is a valid assessment," Johnson told me. "Ultimately, the race will come down to a few key states: Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Virginia, and possibly Rhode Island, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The Democrats hope Arizona will be a key state, and we hope Maryland will be."
In the end, Johnson said, "I feel pretty good about our turnout operations in many of those states, and holding the Senate is, I think, the most likely outcome."
The House presents a "somewhat bleaker picture for the GOP," Johnson said.
"Of the 15 seats the Democrats need to win, there are nine in which some kind of recent GOP scandal is currently playing a direct role," Johnson said. "Those are tough odds to start out with. This is not to say it can't be done, but it will be tough."
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The son of Collister "Terry" Johnson Jr., who was a Bush roommate at Yale, Coddy Johnson began working for Ken Mehlman, the current chairman of the Republican National Committee, as an intern preparing for the 1999 Iowa straw poll. Mehlman was then the Bush campaign's regional political director for the Midwest and later became field director. Mehlman went on to become political director in the White House and eventually manager of the 2004 campaign. Johnson moved up with him.
Generic polls have been showing voters favoring Democrats by wide margins. While these polls have become "pretty accurate," Johnson said, midterm elections are not decided by nationwide average party preference but by district-by-district voting.
"This is akin to the problem national polls face in presidential years, where the winner is again not decided by the national vote, but rather state-by-state electoral votes," he said. "For instance, in midterm election years, it might be the case that voters in New York and California have trended heavily Democrat. This trend would be picked up in a nationwide average moving strongly toward the Democrats, given the large share of the overall U.S. population that these two states have. However, it might also be the case that none of the competitive House seats in play are located in those states. So the nationwide trend might not accurately predict what happens to control of the House, nor similarly to control of the Senate."
At best, Johnson said, "nationwide party preference polls can be seen as indicators of national mood and party momentum. They perhaps could be a means to indicate which party might gain or lose seats. But they really can't be relied on to tell you what the final split will be in seats between Democrats and Republicans."
The polls also can't take into account the Republican National Committee's sophisticated methods for identifying potential Republican voters and getting them to vote, a subject covered in a June 12 NewsMax article on the Voter Vault developed by Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman. [See: Ken Mehlman's Voter Vault.]
If the Democrats win control of Congress and their rhetoric and votes are to be believed, they would gut the USA Patriot Act, stop interception of calls from al-Qaida to the U.S., end tracking of terrorists' financial transfers, give al-Qaida terrorists who are being interrogated legal rights similar to those enjoyed by American citizens, cut off funds to support the war effort in Iraq, and raise taxes. But if they do win control, would they actually be that irresponsible?
Brad Blakeman, a Republican strategist and former aide to President Bush, thinks not. Instead, he said, the Democrats would use Congress as a bully pulpit to pressure the president into changing his policies and to gain advantage in the 2008 presidential election.
"I think the Democrats' whole focus will be on quote unquote accountability," Blakeman said. "That's the guise under which they will seek to embarrass the administration. They will do that by subpoenaing people in order to publicly embarrass them. They're going to say, ‘Look, we're not the commander in chief, and we're not going to stop the funding, because that would hurt the troops.' They're going to try and play it both sides. There'll be a lot of hot air coming out."
At the same time, Mehlman and Rove, looking at their own private polls and the turnout effort that will begin in the final 72 hours of the campaign, remain convinced that Republicans will retain control of Congress. A Sept. 5 NewsMax article outlined why.
"I believe that the combination of the relatively narrow playing field, the relatively strong financial position our folks are in and the national party is in, the good turnout operation that we have, the motivation of our base, and the lack of motivation of their base as indicated by turnout in a number of recent Democrat primaries" will do the trick, Mehlman is quoted as saying in the article. [See: GOP Wins if Election Held Today.]
"They're hoping that the ground game and the information they have gathered and the technology they have developed will make the difference in some of these tight races," Blakeman said. "Going door to door, getting people to call their neighbors, using the Internet and telephone banks doesn't show up in the polls. George Allen, for instance, will have 40,000 volunteers. This is all unprecedented."
Blakeman pointed out that the Democrats are still just talking about developing such a capability.
"These targeting methods were used successfully in 2004," Blakeman said. "They are going to be able to pull out voters who ordinarily may not come out. If you can convince them to come out, that could make all the difference."
Ronald Kessler is chief Washington correspondent of NewsMax.com. Get his dispatches FREE sent you via e-mail. Click here now.
Editor's note:
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