One Reporter's Opinion — at Least They're Talking

One Reporter's Opinion — at Least They're Talking

George Putnam
Friday, Nov. 24, 2006

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It is this reporter's opinion that we face many options in Iraq, none of them easy. The Pentagon has come up with three options:

1. Injecting more troops into Iraq.

2. Shrinking the force but staying longer.

3. Simply pulling out.

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Senior defense officials have dubbed these three alternatives: go big — go long — go home.

Meanwhile, Henry Kissinger, in a BBC interview, says Iraq is not ripe for democracy. He says the U.S. must choose between stability and democracy in Iraq — that democracy, for now, is out of reach.

At the same time, our top U.S. general in the Middle East, John Abizaid, warns against the rise of radical ideologies that could lead to World War III. He says, "If we don't have guts enough to confront this ideology today, we will go through World War III tomorrow."

Even as this is being written, Iran has invited Iraqi and Syrian leaders to Tehran and we are not on the guest list. However, Bush need not wait; he can convene a conference of the key players in Iraq's future — Iraq, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and other concerned states.

And already Bush is making a move diplomatically, scheduling a quick trip to Jordan for a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, head of the new government Iraqi government. Jordan, is apparently is a safe haven for the security of Bush and company.

As for the proposed options on Iraq:

1. Stay the course with tactical adjustments

2. A temporary increase in U.S. troop level

3. A gradual withdrawal

4. Partition or decentralization

5. A strong man, which would be a departure from a democratic government

6. Enlist the neighbors in the Middle East a regional conference to win support from Iran and Syria

Most recently, Iraq says it's open to talks with Iran and Syria. The summit proposed by Tehran would focus on ways to end sectarian strife.

Iran has enormous influence over Shiite southern Iraq, and Syria over the Sunni regions and foreign insurgents. Kissinger favors this approach — an international conference — because adjoining countries want to avoid a radical Iraq in their midst. Iran is supporting the Shiite militias in Iraq, and Syria is aiding Sunni insurgents.

Kissinger warns against a rapid withdrawal of troops and says it could lead to "Disastrous consequences, destabilizing the whole Middle East and causing a long lasting conflict." He says, "If you withdraw all the forces without an international understanding and without an even partial solution of some of the problems, civil war in Iraq will take on more violent forms and achieve dimensions exceeding those that brought us into Yugoslavia with military force."

Kissinger says, "The diplomatic process would have to include Iran and the U.S. must enter into dialogue with Iran's President Ahmadinejad." He says the time has come for Bush and Prime Minister Blair to change course, that we need a bipartisan approach, that "we are fighting an insurrection in the middle of a civil war."

Kissinger's views are sought by the Iraqi study group led by former Secretary of State James Baker III calling for an international conference bringing together permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, Iraq's neighbors, and regional powers like India and Pakistan to work out a way forward for the entire region.

It is this reporter's opinion that as long as all adversaries continue to talk, there is still a chance to avoid World War III.