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Election Repercussions John LeBoutillier In the two weeks since the Republican meltdown, there is a rising anger among Republicans aimed not at the Pelosi/Reid/Hillary Democrats but at G.W. Bush, the White House, and the House GOP leadership. Grass-roots Republicans and conservatives are waking up every day now and getting madder and madder at how inept and incompetent the Republican leadership has been. President Bush is blamed for blowing the election by ignoring concerns over the stagnating situation in Iraq and then firing Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld the day after the election instead of weeks earlier. The surviving Republican members of the House and Senate have now learned a valuable lesson: you listen and follow W and Karl Rove at your own peril. Thus the Senate Republican brought back Trent Lott, who Bush and Rove had improperly helped to sack four years ago; this was a clear sign that these GOP senators no longer will follow Bush's wishes. This rising discontent among grass-roots Republicans will have a profound impact on the 2008 GOP presidential nomination race which begins in just over one year. So forget everything you hear on TV: Dismiss all this nonsense from inside-the-beltway media pundits that McCain vs. Hillary is already "in the bag" for 2008.
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The American people are in an uproar over Iraq and the direction of our country. They are not likely to select "status quo" candidates and front-runners especially two of the biggest boosters (McCain and Hillary) of the war when the decision was made to invade in 2002-2003.
No, indeed, the 2008 race is wide open on both sides, and here are some quick hit looks at each of the main candidates as they get ready to run:
Hillary: yes, she is the Democrats' front-runner. But she is dogged by internal Democrat fears that she is yet another "northeastern liberal loser in November." Also, she has high negatives and automatically unites the GOP no matter how fractured they are coming out of their primaries. Plus she is so polarizing in a time when America wants a leader to unite the country; that unity will never happen with a Clinton back in the White House.
Barack Obama: His popularity is precisely because the left is wary and fatigued of Hillary. He cannot win a general election and the Democrats would be idiotic to nominate him. Not to say that he isn't a nice fellow and a smart one, too. But he is not the prescription for a party that has only won the White House with white Southern governors in the last 30 years.
John Edwards: Ahead of Hillary in Iowa; been round the track and survived; sympathy for wife who has so far conquered breast cancer; he is attractive and hungry. But he is also a bit of a lightweight. But if he knocks Hillary off in Iowa, the whole race changes. McCain: The right will never accept him no matter how hard he panders, brags, jokes and reverses course, he has antagonized too many people with his sarcastic, vicious temper over the years. His greatest strength the fawning love of the so-called mainstream media is also his greatest weakness. The more they love him, the more the right distrusts him. Plus, he is too old, wrong on Iraq, and has a political tin ear. He is a tree nin-tenths sawed through and one good puff of wind and he will fall.
Rudy Giuliani: The media likes him, too. Plus he has some charisma from 9/11. But he does not fit the GOP. Besides his unacceptable (to the right) liberal positions on social issues, he is pro-illegal immigration! He kept New York City as a sanctuary city during his eight years in Gracie Mansion, thus protecting illegals who were discovered by the city. GOP primary voters are not going to support someone so diametrically opposed to everything they stand for. Plus, he and McCain are fighting for the same votes: moderates, independents who can vote in cross-over primaries.
Mitt Romney: the hot flavor of the month on the right. With Allen and Santorum gone and Frist a pathetic soon-to-be-ex Senate leader the mini primary to focus on is who is going to become Mr. Conservative? The winner of that moniker will be the odds-on favorite to become the GOP nominee. Romney formerly a liberal has recast himself as a conservative. He is enormously attractive on TV, and a genuinely nice fellow. But many worry that his Mormonism will haunt him . . . any see it as a cult in a time when the Religious right is imploding and the Republicans may want to cool it a bit with religious candidates.
Others: Yes, there are Sam Brownback (forget it); Mike Huckabee (engaging); Tommy Thompson; and George Pataki (my cat has a better chance); Evan Bayh (a bore but a straight-shooter); and Tom Vilsak (he'll upset Iowa a bit).
Conclusion: 1) Iraq is a key to 2008: If we are still there, it will be the single most important issue of the 2008 race. 2) Because the American voter is mired in a bad mood over many things, the front-runners better watch out. 2008 will be full of surprises and some of those will happen in 2007. Editor's note: Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
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