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Karl Rove's Dream: Kerry's October Surprise Ronald Kessler WASHINGTON -- Karl Rove has been promising GOP supporters an October Surprise. So far, a White House backed news event has not happened.
Interestingly, Rove may have been more psychic than instigator. Senator John Kerry's recent controversial remarks produced an October Surprise that may help the GOP come election day.
Kerry's comment suggesting that those who are uneducated and not "smart" end up "stuck in Iraq" handed Republicans a ready symbol of what Congress will be like if Democrats win control on Tuesday: anti-military, elitist, and wrong on the issues.
In fact, 90 percent of military enlistees have a high school diploma, compared with a national high school graduation rate of 75 percent, according to economist Timothy Kane, who just completed a study of the demographics of enlistees for the Heritage Foundation.
The mean reading level of 2004 recruits is a full grade level higher than that of the comparable youth population.
Story Continues Below Kerry, who sought to characterize his comment as a botched joke, might be surprised to learn that wealthy families are over-represented in today's military.
"Our review of Pentagon enlistee data shows that the only group that is lowering its participation in the military is the poor," Kane says. "The percentage of recruits from the poorest American neighborhoods (with one-fifth of the U.S. population) declined from 18 percent in 1999 to 14.6 percent in 2003, 14.1 percent in 2004, and 13.7 percent in 2005."
When it comes to race, "The enlisted ranks are not disproportionately composed of minorities," Kane concluded. The study found that whites serve in numbers almost equal to their distribution in the entire population. While blacks are somewhat over-represented, their representation decreased between 2003 and 2005.
In line with a longtime White House strategy of always seeking to be underestimated, Rove told CBS News that the Kerry flap is a sideshow, and he isn't sure whether it will end up being much of an issue in this election.
"John Kerry's name is not on the ballot," Rove said. "It will remind people of why they didn't vote for him and it may remind them of the tendency of some in the Democratic Party to be dismissive of our military, to be less than supportive of our military at a time of war."
But elections these days are won or lost on sound bites. Kerry's comment underscores the basic philosophical differences between Republicans and Democrats today: When it comes to our national security, Republicans recognize the stakes and what is necessary to win the war on terror. Dissing the troops is not one of those ways.
In contrast, with the exception of Joe Lieberman and a few others, when it comes to recognizing the threats we face and taking appropriate action, Democrats are in a state of denial. As outlined in an Oct. 31 NewsMax story, Democrats have sought to kill the USA Patriot Act, which FBI agents and CIA officers consider their single most important tool for hunting down terrorists and preventing another 9/11 attack.
John Kerry's comment is a reminder of those differences. Count on voters to keep them in mind when they go to the polls on Nov. 7.
Ronald Kessler is chief Washington correspondent of NewsMax.com. Get his dispatches FREE sent you via e-mail. Click here now.
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