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GOP Rep. Northrup in Tough Kentucky Re-election Race NewsMax.com Wires LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Democrats have been targeting Republican Rep. Anne Northup for a decade to no avail, but that hasn't stopped them from betting once again that her political luck is about to run out. Northup, a five-term incumbent, has a lot of advantages, including a prized seat on the House Appropriations Committee. She has raised twice as much money as her Democratic opponent. But her ties to President Bush, mounting casualties in Iraq and her district's penchant for leaning Democrat has made the race against Louisville businessman John Yarmuth a virtual toss-up. Bush is not popular here; the district went for Democratic presidential candidates John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000. Four years ago, Northup held on to her seat by beating a political newcomer by just a few thousand votes. "John Yarmuth wants to make this a race on the popularity of the president, which in this district is not that high," Northup said. "He makes two claims, that it's about President Bush or that I'm a rubber stamp for the president, and it's neither one of those." Yarmuth, a former Republican who switched parties in 1985, said despite the war and the GOP's troubles, he thinks voters will be thinking about their pocketbooks on Nov. 7. "Economic security has become the critical factor in their decision-making. They're being squeezed by health care costs, by energy costs and stagnant wages," he said. Story Continues Below
A recent Bluegrass Poll by The Courier-Journal of Louisville showed Northup was favored 48 percent to 42 percent for Yarmuth, but that falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Northup said a Yarmuth win would hurt the district, because of her prominent position on the Appropriations Committee and support of a billion-dollar project to build two new bridges on the Ohio River at Louisville. "This project needs a champion every day," Northup said. She said the project could crumble if Yarmuth were to win the seat. "If somebody blinks, just by benign neglect, it'll fall apart," she said. Northup had a strong fundraising advantage as of mid-October, with nearly $900,000 left in her campaign coffers, compared to about $170,000 for Yarmuth. Yarmuth's campaign is getting some late help from national Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began running a television ad critical of Northup on Monday night in the district. The 30-second spot is the first ad the DCCC has run in the district during the campaign, said DCCC spokeswoman Adrienne Elrod. "This is a race that we definitely see as winnable," she said. The Republican National Committee had no plans as of this week to run an ad on behalf of Northup, said Northup campaign spokesman Patrick Neely. Northup has already survived four close races, repeatedly dashing Democratic hopes. This year's close race has turned the campaign nasty, especially on the airwaves. Northup's campaign has dug up opinion articles Yarmuth wrote when he was a columnist for a weekly alternative newspaper, the Louisville Eccentric Observer, that he founded. In television ads, she has accused Yarmuth of penning support for marijuana legalization, gay marriage and lowering the drinking age. Yarmuth has said the columns were taken out of context by the Northup campaign, which created a Web site featuring snippets of Yarmuth's columns and TV appearances over the last 16 years. Yarmuth created his own rebuttal ad that pokes fun at Northup, saying he also "plays golf with Saddam Hussein" and "snatches toys from little children." Northup's own ads have yet to mention that she is a Republican, and she has not invited President Bush to the district to campaign for her. In a further distancing from Bush, she recently announced a shift in her views on the Iraq war, calling for the ouster of Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and saying the U.S. military policy needs a change of course. Yarmuth called Northup's shift "obvious political posturing in the last moments of the campaign." Northup's change didn't matter to retired truck driver Jim Vibert, who lives in Louisville's south end, a blue-collar area where Northup has won over many Democrats. Vibert, a Republican, said he has soured on Bush but said he'll vote again for Northup. He said he believes her values are similar to his. "She's more in line with the thinking around here," Vibert said while sipping coffee during lunch hour at a White Castle restaurant. "I think it's going to be a tight race." Another south-end voter, Steve Fein, said he is supporting Yarmuth. He said strong gains by the stock market are not improving the economic situation of many in the middle class. He said Yarmuth is a thoughtful candidate. "He has a lot of good ideas," Fein said. Northup has held onto the district by effectively appealing to Democratic voters, said Phil Laemmle, a retired University of Louisville political science professor. "What we have here is a large number of Democratic voters who have consistently voted for Northup," he said. Laemmle said Yarmuth would be leading Northup if the problems plaguing national Republicans better motivated Democratic voters in the district. "I think the election has been nationalized in many areas (of the country), but I don't think that strategy is as effective in Kentucky," he said. "It doesn't divide people as much as it does in other districts. If that were the case, Yarmuth would be in a much stronger position."
© 2006 Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Editor's note: Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
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