John LeBoutillier
Monday, Oct. 9, 2006

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Let's face it: Things in Iraq are not going well. Period. And when war-supporter Senator John Warner comes back from Baghdad and says, "Things are going sideways," you know that it is much worse than we are being told.

There is much buzz about a ‘new approach,' to be announced after our November midterm elections.

Former Secretary of State Jim Baker has been brought in by the Congress to "advise" – which means he may try to come up with some type of new plan to change the dynamic.

Here is my new plan – one which takes into account all concerns we Americans have about our present Iraqi strategy:

Concerns:

1. Rising casualty totals for American troops;
2. No appreciable ‘progress' on the ground;
3. Rising Iraqi sectarian civil strife – or a civil war;
4. Fear that an American pull-out will be viewed as a retreat by the Islamicists.

We need a plan that takes all of these concerns into account.

So, here we go.

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The New Iraq Plan is based on the precedent of our occupation of Western Europe after World War II. For several years after the end of the war, American and Allied troops kept the peace and allowed the Marshall Plan rebuilding effort to get under way. But after the consolidation of the Soviet Empire by 1948, American troops in Europe had a new purpose: to deter a Soviet invasion of Western Europe.

By placing our troops in Europe, the message to Moscow was clear: If you send your tanks and troops into Western Europe, you will encounter American forces – and thus you will be initiating war with the United States. Out troops were a ‘tripwire.'

That threat worked for almost 50 years – until the Soviet Empire crumbled from within.

The analogy to Iraq is not perfect: Iraq's internal situation has deteriorated in the three and one half years since our invasion. The Shiite-Sunni civil war has intensified, the central government can't stop it – and the Iraqi army and national police forces are riddled with turncoats and hidden militia members who play both sides.

Baghdad has descended into near anarchy; the curfew and draconian travel restrictions have been extended. Power outages are more frequent and of longer duration now than they were after our invasion.

Last week, when Secretary of State Condi Rice tried to land in Baghdad, her plane was forced to circle for an hour because of mortar fire at the airport. And during her meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Noori Al-Maliki, the power went out and plunged the room into total darkness.

If after three years of occupation we cannot secure the airport or the road to Baghdad from the airport and cannot keep the lights on around the clock, you can see why many now realize we are "going sideways." Others would say we are going backward.

The Plan:

1. No American troop pull-outs; we are not going to give our Islamist enemies the satisfaction of saying they "drove America out of the Middle East."
2. Instead, we station our troops along the Western European model, on American bases.
3. We leave the policing of Iraq to the Iraqis. They have had three years – and three national elections, thanks to us – to get their act together. Now it is up to them to either sink or swim.
4. Our forces serve as a warning and a deterrent and a ‘tripwire' to Iraq's neighbors – Iran, Turkey and Syria: Do not invade into sovereign Iraqi territory, because if you do, you will be engaging the United States in a ‘hot' war.
5. As part of a deal with the United Nations, we should ask for a U.N. force to come and help control the eastern and western Iraqi borders to stem the constant invasion of subversive outsiders from Iran and Syria. It is time for other nations to help maintain the sovereignty of the newly free nation of Iraq. The burden should not fall entirely upon the United States and Britain.
6. America will not be driven out of the Middle East. We will stay until things settle down. We will serve as a buffer between the radical regimes in Syria and Iran and the new democracy in Iraq. And our putative ally Turkey needs to be told that we will not tolerate their threats to come into Iraq and suppress the Kurds.

Only time will tell if the Bush administration will indeed change paths – before even more American soldiers die and American prestige is shredded before our eyes.

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