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Bob Menendez, Tom Kean Jr. Battle for New Jersey Dave Eberhart, NewsMax.com WASHINGTON -- New Jersey is the one race the Democrats thought they wouldn't have to fret about or throw money at – an incumbent Democratic Senator running in a bright, blue state.
After all, the citizens of New Jersey have not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972 when they sent forth Clifford P. Case.
Now, with just a week to go before Election Day, Democrat incumbent Robert Menendez and Republican Tom Kean, Jr. are engaged in a battle for New Jersey many political observers thought unlikely just a few months ago.
Appointed in Jan. 2006 by Jon Corzine to fill the seat made vacant by Corzine's resignation from the Senate to serve as governor of New Jersey, Robert Menendez has found himself in a surprisingly tight race with Republican Thomas Kean, Jr. - state senator and son of the popular former governor of the Garden State.
According to The New York Times/CBS News poll conducted between Oct. 20 and Oct. 25, Menendez leads by just 38 percent to 36 percent among registered voters. That telephone poll included 1,023 adults – with a three percent margin of error.
Other polls bring the race into closer focus. A RealClearPolitics.com average of five polls shows Menendez with 44.6 percent of the vote, and Kean Jr. with 41.8 percent, with 9.2 percent of voters undecided. The most recent poll cited by Rasmussen Reports shows both candidates tied at 45 percent, and 6 percent undecided.
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Significantly, 72 percent of Menendez's supporters say they favor him not because they are inveterate fans of him personally, but to boost the Democrats' chances of gaining control of the Senate. Sixty-two percent characterize their support of the incumbent as a censure of President Bush.
Thirty-nine percent of registered voters said they could change their mind before the Nov. 7 election. In this regard, history is on the Menendez's side, since in past elections, late-deciding voters have normally pulled the lever for Democratic candidates.
Pundits point out that Menendez is flagging even though he is saying all the rights things about Iraq in a state with strong anti-war sentiment, as in this reply to a recent Associated Press question:
"I voted against sending troops to Iraq because I did not think the president made the case that Iraq posed a national security threat to the United States, nor did I think he had a plan for success. Four years later, I know I made the right decision. Our operations in Iraq have made us less, not more, safe and our troops, including our Guard and Reserve, are stretched far too thin. We need to change the direction in Iraq and bring our troops home safely and soon."
For his part, Kean has been loyal to the president's basic line on Iraq, adding, however, a significant proviso that lets voters know he feels their pain:
"Given the circumstances and intelligence available at the time, I would have supported sending troops to Iraq. However, I believe there have been horrendous mistakes in the handling of the war in Iraq. That is why I called for Secretary Rumsfeld to resign. I have been vocal about my call to change the course in Iraq, and will work in a bipartisan manner to do so in the U.S. Senate."
When not fending off the Iraq issue, Kean has been playing the ethics in government card, reminding the electorate that his opponent comes from Hudson County, reputedly the epicenter of a multitude of corrupt politicians.
Kean's most recent refrain is that Menendez is "under federal criminal investigation" for leasing office space to a nonprofit that receives federal funding. Reportedly, the U.S. Attorney's Office has subpoenaed records from a nonprofit organization that rented a Union City house from Menendez.
Menendez, however, insists, "I'm under no federal criminal investigation."
The Feds will neither confirm nor deny any investigation.
If there is any issue at all competing with the Iraq War issue, it is immigration policy.
Kean likes to put it this way, "Unlike Bob Menendez, I do not support amnesty for illegal immigrants. Unlike Bob Menendez, I do not support giving Social Security and other benefits to illegal immigrants."
For his part, Menendez supports a plan that will add 1,000 more border agents, sanction employers who hire illegal workers – and, unlike his opponent, provide immigrants temporary worker permits.
There is more daylight between the two candidates' positions.
Menendez says he will fight the president's renewed efforts to privatize Social Security, work to increase the federal minimum wage, and reverse the president's ban on stem cell research.
In a recent campaign ad, the incumbent Menendez addresses his 87-year-old mother's reliance on Medicare and Social Security – a reality that prompts his fight against President Bush's effort to alter the programs. His mother also has Alzheimer's disease, another reality that he says motivates his support for stem cell research.
Kean promises to fight to raise the federal minimum wage, eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax, repeal the death tax, and bring more federal dollars back to the Garden State.
The big guns coming to town for Kean include Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Menendez counters with visits by New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, former Georgia Sen. Max Cleland and actor Michael J. Fox (a Parkinson's disease sufferer).
Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., is also beating the war drum for Menendez: "It is clear that Bob Menendez has been right about the war. He has been courageous about this war. And he understands the connection of this war to all the other priorities of the state of New Jersey," Kerry said.
Federal Election Commission figures show Menendez has $5.5 million to fire away in the closing days of the race, while Kean has $3.17 million to spend.
Editor's note:
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