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Friday, April 15, 2005

John Paul II's election in 1978 broke Italy's 455-year-long grip on the papacy. Now, as cardinals prepare to pick his successor, Italians have less clout than they once did, but they could still be decisive.

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  "Their hammerlock on the papacy is gone," said the Rev. Thomas Reese, editor of "America," a Jesuit magazine based in New York.

Yet when the cardinals talk among themselves, he said, "one of the first things they are going to say is, 'Who are the leading Italian candidates?'"

Closeted in the Sistine Chapel, 115 cardinals will start casting ballots Monday afternoon in a secret election expected to last days. The world will know they have a winner when white smoke pours out of the chapel's chimney and bells begin to toll.

Italians began dominating the Vatican in the first centuries of the Catholic Church, helped by the Vatican's location in Rome. But Greeks, Syrians, Africans and others led the church in the first millennium, and French, Germans and a few other nations provided popes in the first part of the second millennium.

Even Italian churchmen are among those doubting the days of Italian hegemony will return.

"I don't know, perhaps not," Italian Cardinal Fiorenzo Angeli replied when Milan daily Corriere della Sera asked him if Italians will regain the papacy.

With John Paul's pontificate, "Our perception of the church has broadened, to the point of reaching really global dimensions," said Angelini, who at 88 is too old to vote in the conclave. "You can't reason any more with a national mentality and not even a continental one."

The 115 cardinals voting next week come from all over the world, reflecting John Paul's commitment to geographic diversity. Twenty are from Italy, the same number as those from Latin America.

But after John Paul's 26-year papacy, one of the longest and most dynamic, age and personality are expected to be serious considerations.

"All things being equal it makes sense to have an Italian because he is the Bishop of Rome, but all things aren't equal," Reese said with a laugh.

One example is the number of faithful in Latin America - nearly half the world's 1.1 billion Roman Catholics.

"If you look at the reality of the numbers . . . you are struck by the importance that Latin America has achieved," Angelini said.

John Paul II came to power when John Paul I died after less than two months in office, leading to the second conclave in 1978. Venice Cardinal Albino Luciani was picked on the fourth ballot of the second day. His successor, Krakow Cardinal Karol Wojtyla, was elected on the eighth ballot, on the third day.

The Italians "were split, and the other cardinals said, 'You had your chance, now we're going to look elsewhere,'" Reese said.

Going into this vote, many experts on the Vatican think Milan Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi is one of five top candidates. Several other Italians, including cardinals from Venice, Genoa, Turin and Florence, have also made the buzz.

With Italians accounting for some 17 percent of the voters, a united front could be significant, but Reese said he saw no sign the Italians have rallied behind one candidate.

The editor of America said he thought the Italians would view this conclave as their "last chance" to get the papacy back and resume their domination. The pope appoints the cardinals.

But John-Peter Pham, a Vatican expert who worked at the Holy See from 1992 to 2002, said he was not sure that was the agenda. Still, the Italians "remain a force to be reckoned with," said Pham in a telephone interview from Virginia, where he is a professor at James Madison University.

"I think cardinals would be hesitant to elect a Bishop of Rome who is opposed by the bishops of Italy," Pham added.

Italians might have an advantage in lobbying, since fluency in conversational Latin, once expected of top churchmen, has largely slackened.

When cardinals gather, "if you watch their dining room behavior, they tend to sit in language groups," Pham said. "If there's a common language, it's Italian."

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